Investing & Markets
Chips, the AI supply chain, macro and money flows: slowly making sense of markets. 212 posts.
The Circuit: Has the Memory Cycle Broken? It Comes Down to Whether the Old Lines Stay
Notes on The Circuit (5 October 2026): Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg on Micron, a memory floor that has been lifted, bit growth running only in the low twenties, the allocation maths where four consumer parts' worth of capacity buys one top-end HBM stack, and Broadcom committing up to $42bn of credit to Anthropic. Educational listening notes only — no investment advice, no price targets, and the judgements here may be wrong.
Bang All the Keys at Once and the Behavior Still Comes Out — Huberman on the Neurotech Frontier
Invest Like the Best EP.494: Andrew Huberman on reading and writing to the nervous system, the three prerequisites for sleep, and a memory model punctured by its own control experiment. Listening notes, educational only, no investment advice or stock recommendations.
The Last Order of Brazil's Armored Vehicle King
Notes on Asianometry's 4 October 2026 episode about the collapse of Brazilian arms maker Engesa — customer concentration, patron risk, and how leverage multiplies both. Educational, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.
Reserves, Panics, and Dumb Rules: George Selgin on the New Deal and Banking Crises
Macro Musings, October 5, 2026: George Selgin on the Fed's balance sheet, the 12% loss rate on Main Street Lending, and the regulatory roots of banking crises. Educational discussion of method — no investment advice, no stock recommendations.
Why Treasuries Became Risky Again
Notes after listening to Bloomberg Odd Lots (2026-10-05): Chicago's Carolyn Pfluger explains the yield surge through bond-stock correlation, the perceived policy reaction function, the 1980s bond market, and a financial path to hegemonic transition. Educational notes, not investment advice.
Podcast Notes Weekly: Sep 28–Oct 04, 2026
The takeaways from 26 podcast notes I wrote this week (Catalyst with Shayle Kann, Macro Musings with David Beckworth, Bloomberg Odd Lots, Serenity Weekly, Asianometry, The Circuit and more). Two to four sentences per episode, with a link to each full post.
Gooaye EP702: Engineers Want the Best Tool, the Boss Reads the Invoice
Notes on Gooaye EP702 (3 October 2026): MediaTek capping how much AI its engineers can use, the 65% US bill-of-materials threshold in Morgan Stanley's 1 October optical-module rumour report, October's broad strength in Taiwan, and why quant trading is a different kind of contest. Educational listening notes only — no investment advice, no price targets, and the judgements here may be wrong.
90% Equals Zero: How a Near-Bankrupt Japanese Parts Maker Reached a 20% Operating Margin on Punctuality Alone
On the 2026-10-04 episode of Investor's Sunday, IHARA SCIENCE chairman Takuo Nakano describes taking over a company carrying ¥3.5bn in accumulated losses in 1999 and turning it around through cash-bleed control, receivables conversion, and making profit visible on the shop floor. Personal listening notes, educational only, not investment advice; figures come from the speaker's own recollection with no public filings to check against.
Where Does the AI Supply Chain Go Next? Power Became the Thing That Jams Everything｜Notes on MacroMicro EP.216
Notes from the MacroMicro After Meeting Podcast EP.216, recorded 1 October 2026: how the power bottleneck pushes money into chip efficiency instead, how to tell restocking from passive pile-up when inventory value explodes, and why a shortage does not mean pricing power. Educational commentary, not investment advice — no tickers, no price targets.
EUV Photomasks Are Getting Bigger: Why One 6×12-Inch Plate Stalled for a Decade
Listening notes on Asianometry's 2026-10-01 episode 'EUV Photomasks Are Getting Bigger.' Working from the TSMC–ASML High-NA timeline, it unpacks why the bigger-mask transition is a cost and coordination problem, and the conditions under which that read breaks. Educational notes on industry structure, not investment advice; no tickers, no price targets.
Yields at a 20-Year High, and Taiwan's Market Walks June's Loop Again — Notes on Caibaogou Ep. 568
Episode 568 of the Taiwanese podcast Caibaogou (Oct 1, 2026) on the US 10-year Treasury yield pushing above 5.2%, TSMC evaluating a second Texas campus, the labor squeeze in fab-facilities engineering, and NVIDIA's AI factory certification. An educational listening note that lays out the reasoning and the counter-case; no investment advice, no stock recommendations.
In All the Noise, Ask One Thing: Did This Cost Reach Anyone's Paycheck?
MacroVoices #552, October 1, 2026: David Rosenberg on why he won't buy the inflation narrative, what is actually driving real yields, and the November date nobody circles. Listening notes for education, not investment advice.
The ERCOT Battery Paradox: Revenue Down 84%, and We Still Need More
The October 1, 2026 episode of Catalyst with Shayle Kann on grid-scale batteries in Texas. Per-kilowatt revenue fell from $200 to $30 while the financing bar sits near $100 — and the market says it needs far more storage. A breakdown of the mechanism, the recovery thesis, and where it breaks. Educational, not investment advice.
Gooaye EP701: After a 30% Drawdown, He Rotated the Whole Book
Notes on Gooaye EP701 (30 September 2026): a Q3 review covering a 30% peak-to-trough drawdown in July, a new high by early September, and the reasoning behind Taiwan's small IC design names, AI-assisted chip design, and the TSMC Texas rumour. Educational listening notes only — no investment advice, no price targets, and the judgements here may be wrong.
The Index Is at Its High, My Stocks Are Down: Odd Lots on Why Markets Move This Fast
On the October 1, 2026 Bloomberg Odd Lots, Sherwood News's Luke Kawa unpacks a market 0.5% from its high with only 51.2% of stocks above their 200-day, and half of this year's earnings growth tied to hyperscaler capex. Educational listening notes, no investment advice, no single-stock calls.
Europe Is Betting the Winter on 80 BCM — Notes on Columbia Energy Exchange's Global Gas Episode
On 29 September 2026, Columbia Energy Exchange gathered three CGEP scholars to discuss Europe's gas position heading into winter: 80 BCM in storage, a record withdrawal of 74 BCM, and seven months of a closed Strait of Hormuz. An educational listening note on supply-demand structure and how to read it. Not investment advice; no individual securities discussed.
The Feeling Is Awful, the Price Is Fine — Notes on Weak Internals from The Compound and Friends
Notes on the September 29, 2026 WAYT episode of The Compound and Friends: consumer confidence at a 12-year low, the share of S&P 500 members above their 200-day average down from 73% to 51%, and the index still near its highs. I lay out the bullish case and the strongest counter-case side by side, and name the condition that decides it. Educational personal notes, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.
It Can Write the Code, It Just Doesn't Know Where Things Break: Notes on an Episode About AI in Chip Design
Supply Chained's September 29, 2026 episode 'Adventures in Chip Design' has John of Asianometry and Tim Culpan of Culpium on the current state of AI inside the chip design flow. These are my listening notes and extended reading — educational industry commentary, not investment advice, and no stock recommendations.
The Format War That Almost Happened: How DVD Got Settled in 1995 by a Company That Sold No Players
Listening notes on Asianometry's September 27, 2026 video, The Dramatic Birth of the DVD Boom: MMCD's 3.7GB per side against SD's 5GB, the roughly 3 cents per disc in CD patent royalties, and how IBM pushed both camps to one table in August 1995. Educational and for thinking practice only — no investment advice, no individual stock views or price targets.
Memory Prices Froze Device Specs, and Agents Are Eating the CPUs
Notes from The Circuit, 2026-09-28: what memory pricing is doing to consumer hardware, how Meta's Muse gives the assistant product a shape, and the CPU shortage sitting behind the Anthropic–Akamai deal. Educational commentary, not investment advice.
Three Things Under the Surface of Private Markets: Hamilton Lane's CEO on Dispersion, Secondary Discounts, and the Unfinished Sentence
Listening notes from the September 28, 2026 episode of The Compound and Friends with Hamilton Lane CEO Erik Hirsch: correlation with public equities, private credit default rates around 2%, and why a stake bought at 65 cents gets booked at a dollar. Educational and for thinking practice only — no investment advice, no individual stock views or price targets.
A Personal Assistant With No App — Notes on Noah Shinn and Instinct
Notes on Invest Like the Best EP.493 (2026-09-28): Noah Shinn on Instinct, an AI personal assistant with no app, how it turns trust into a measurable metric, and why a free-plus-take-rate business model decides whose side it is on. Educational, not investment advice.
From Printed Interconnects to Spinning Flywheels: Four Dutch Companies on Where AI Silicon Actually Jams
TechWave EP156 recorded four interviews at SEMICON, covering printed interconnects in advanced packaging, fiber alignment for silicon photonics, quantum chip testing, and flywheel power protection for data centers. These are my notes and extended reading — educational industry commentary, not investment advice, and no stock recommendations.
Where the Electrons Come From: A Debate About Building Your Own Power Plant
Notes on the 2026-09-28 Frontier Forum conversation on Catalyst with Shayle Kann. Bloom Energy's chief commercial officer on why data centers and factories are generating their own power, how delivered cost actually stacks up, and why communities are pushing back. Educational notes only — not investment advice, no stock recommendations.