English updates from Realpha Blog.https://blog.getrealpha.com/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/about/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/about/What Realpha writes about — growth, research notes, and markets — and how the human and the AI share the work.Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/lab/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/lab/Small tools that turn a concept into something you can try with your own numbers.Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-10-05-has-the-memory-cycle-broken-plus-nvidia-broadcom-s/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-10-05-has-the-memory-cycle-broken-plus-nvidia-broadcom-s/Notes on The Circuit (5 October 2026): Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg on Micron, a memory floor that has been lifted, bit growth running only in the low twenties, the allocation maths where four consumer parts' worth of capacity buys one top-end HBM stack, and Broadcom committing up to $42bn of credit to Anthropic. Educational listening notes only — no investment advice, no price targets, and the judgements here may be wrong.Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-10-06-andrew-huberman-the-frontier-of-neurotechnology-in/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-10-06-andrew-huberman-the-frontier-of-neurotechnology-in/Invest Like the Best EP.494: Andrew Huberman on reading and writing to the nervous system, the three prerequisites for sleep, and a memory model punctured by its own control experiment. Listening notes, educational only, no investment advice or stock recommendations.Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-10-05-ep157-ai-agent-openai-dots-muse-grok-bot-instinct/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-10-05-ep157-ai-agent-openai-dots-muse-grok-bot-instinct/TechWave EP157 lines up Instinct, Grok Bot, Muse and OpenAI's Dots, covering product positioning, security mechanisms, two business models, and a CPU demand estimate. These are my notes and extended reading — educational industry commentary, not investment advice, and no stock recommendations.Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-10-04-the-fall-of-brazil-s-armored-vehicle-king/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-10-04-the-fall-of-brazil-s-armored-vehicle-king/Notes on Asianometry's 4 October 2026 episode about the collapse of Brazilian arms maker Engesa — customer concentration, patron risk, and how leverage multiplies both. Educational, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-10-05-george-selgin-on-the-new-deal-and-the-history-of-b/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-10-05-george-selgin-on-the-new-deal-and-the-history-of-b/Macro Musings, October 5, 2026: George Selgin on the Fed's balance sheet, the 12% loss rate on Main Street Lending, and the regulatory roots of banking crises. Educational discussion of method — no investment advice, no stock recommendations.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-10-05-why-treasuries-became-risky-again/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-10-05-why-treasuries-became-risky-again/Notes after listening to Bloomberg Odd Lots (2026-10-05): Chicago's Carolyn Pfluger explains the yield surge through bond-stock correlation, the perceived policy reaction function, the 1980s bond market, and a financial path to hegemonic transition. Educational notes, not investment advice.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/weekly-digest-2026-09-28/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/weekly-digest-2026-09-28/The takeaways from 26 podcast notes I wrote this week (Catalyst with Shayle Kann, Macro Musings with David Beckworth, Bloomberg Odd Lots, Serenity Weekly, Asianometry, The Circuit and more). Two to four sentences per episode, with a link to each full post.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-10-03-ep702/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-10-03-ep702/Notes on Gooaye EP702 (3 October 2026): MediaTek capping how much AI its engineers can use, the 65% US bill-of-materials threshold in Morgan Stanley's 1 October optical-module rumour report, October's broad strength in Taiwan, and why quant trading is a different kind of contest. Educational listening notes only — no investment advice, no price targets, and the judgements here may be wrong.Sun, 04 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-10-04-4-investor-s-sunday/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-10-04-4-investor-s-sunday/On the 2026-10-04 episode of Investor's Sunday, IHARA SCIENCE chairman Takuo Nakano describes taking over a company carrying ¥3.5bn in accumulated losses in 1999 and turning it around through cash-bleed control, receivables conversion, and making profit visible on the shop floor. Personal listening notes, educational only, not investment advice; figures come from the speaker's own recollection with no public filings to check against.Sun, 04 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-10-04-ai-ep-216/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-10-04-ai-ep-216/Notes from the MacroMicro After Meeting Podcast EP.216, recorded 1 October 2026: how the power bottleneck pushes money into chip efficiency instead, how to tell restocking from passive pile-up when inventory value explodes, and why a shortage does not mean pricing power. Educational commentary, not investment advice — no tickers, no price targets.Sun, 04 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/orca-parallel-agents-worktree-2026-10/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/orca-parallel-agents-worktree-2026-10/In an August 21, 2026 video, Joe Maddalone used the open-source tool Orca to run three AI coding agents in parallel, each in its own git worktree. This post digs into one argument: worktrees fix agents overwriting each other, but not quota and not review, so adding seats moves the bottleneck onto you. Includes a comparison of Orca, herdr and Claude Code's built-in worktree flag, plus the snags I hit running three seats on Windows on September 22. Technical learning notes, not business advice.Sun, 04 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/webcam-read-aloud-english-2026-10/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/webcam-read-aloud-english-2026-10/My kid needed the textbook audio to practice English, and the CD was nowhere to be found. I clipped a webcam onto an old laptop and wrote two tiny scripts with an AI: one takes a photo of the page, the other reads it aloud slowly in a natural offline voice. Here is how it works, how it compares with other options, what it can't do, and the full code at the end so you can use it. A personal write-up.Sun, 04 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/free-llm-api-vs-omniroute-2026-10/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/free-llm-api-vs-omniroute-2026-10/In a September 4, 2026 video, Joe Maddalone shows Free LLM API stitching the free tiers of thirty-plus AI services into one endpoint, so a coding agent picks its own model and costs nothing, and compares it with OmniRoute. This post makes the strongest case for it, then argues the other side by checking each provider's official terms for the hidden price of 'free', and ends with my own experience routing work across several AI services. A personal technical write-up, not commercial advice.Sat, 03 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/old-laptop-ai-server-2026-10/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/old-laptop-ai-server-2026-10/An old HP laptop still running Windows 7 had been sitting in a drawer. I plugged in an install USB stick, typed a few short commands and entered my own passwords; AI did the rest over SSH from my other computer, installing Arch Linux and Omarchy, full-disk encryption, Tailscale and input methods, while keeping Windows 7 intact. What it did, where it got stuck, what it couldn't do, and the steps if you want to try it. Personal notes.Sat, 03 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/opencode-go-vs-openrouter-deepseek-privacy-2026-10/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/opencode-go-vs-openrouter-deepseek-privacy-2026-10/In October 2026 I wanted to move my home AI assistant off DeepSeek's official API, mostly for data sensitivity. This is what I found, in order: OpenCode Go costs $10 a month and lists DeepSeek as '0-day retention', but that agreement only runs to October 31; on OpenRouter, 31 providers serve the same DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, 25 of them are on its zero-data-retention list, and DeepSeek's own endpoint is not. Then the math on when a subscription beats pay-as-you-go. Personal notes, not a recommendation for any service.Sat, 03 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/vast-gpu-rental-notes-2026-10/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/vast-gpu-rental-notes-2026-10/Notes from renting cloud GPUs on vast.ai and RunPod in September 2026: an RTX 3090 on vast at $0.22 an hour, 50 images for $0.18; how to choose between the two and where each one bites. A personal write-up, not an endorsement of any service.Sat, 03 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-10-01-euv-photomasks-are-getting-bigger/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-10-01-euv-photomasks-are-getting-bigger/Listening notes on Asianometry's 2026-10-01 episode 'EUV Photomasks Are Getting Bigger.' Working from the TSMC–ASML High-NA timeline, it unpacks why the bigger-mask transition is a cost and coordination problem, and the conditions under which that read breaks. Educational notes on industry structure, not investment advice; no tickers, no price targets.Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-10-01-568-vs-x/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-10-01-568-vs-x/Episode 568 of the Taiwanese podcast Caibaogou (Oct 1, 2026) on the US 10-year Treasury yield pushing above 5.2%, TSMC evaluating a second Texas campus, the labor squeeze in fab-facilities engineering, and NVIDIA's AI factory certification. An educational listening note that lays out the reasoning and the counter-case; no investment advice, no stock recommendations.Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-10-02-is-gen-z-completely-cooked-with-ed-elson/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-10-02-is-gen-z-completely-cooked-with-ed-elson/On October 2, 2026, The Compound and Friends hosted Ed Elson, co-host of Prof G Markets, for an argument that ran from whether AI is melting kids' brains to houses costing seven times annual income. These are listening notes and educational commentary — no investment advice, no buy or sell calls on any stock.Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-10-01-si-sheppard-how-did-a-few-hundred-spanish-soldiers/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-10-01-si-sheppard-how-did-a-few-hundred-spanish-soldiers/Dwarkesh Podcast, 1 October 2026, with military historian Si Sheppard on how the Spanish toppled the Aztec and Inca empires. Listening notes on single points of failure, consent versus coercion, and the resource curse. Educational, not investment advice.Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/huggingface-spaces-free-ai-app-2026-10/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/huggingface-spaces-free-ai-app-2026-10/In a September 11, 2026 video, Joe Maddalone built a background-remover app on Hugging Face Spaces in under ten minutes, called it from his own machine through an API, and paid nothing. This post walks through what he did in order, checks the official docs for the three conditions that make "free" work, and compares it with my own cloud GPU rental numbers: when the free quota is enough and when renting a card is the better deal. A technical learning note, not business advice.Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-10-01-macrovoices-552-david-rosenberg-navigating-the-noi/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-10-01-macrovoices-552-david-rosenberg-navigating-the-noi/MacroVoices #552, October 1, 2026: David Rosenberg on why he won't buy the inflation narrative, what is actually driving real yields, and the November date nobody circles. Listening notes for education, not investment advice.Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-10-02-how-airlines-actually-hedge-higher-fuel-prices/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-10-02-how-airlines-actually-hedge-higher-fuel-prices/Notes on Bloomberg Odd Lots, 2026-10-02, 'How Airlines Actually Hedge Higher Fuel Prices.' Former Qatar Airways group treasurer David Kang explains how he found the airline was structurally long crude through its fuel surcharge, and built the hedge around it. Educational only; no investment advice and no single-stock recommendations.Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/catalyst-2026-10-01-ercot-batteries-boom-bust-or-rebound/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/catalyst-2026-10-01-ercot-batteries-boom-bust-or-rebound/The October 1, 2026 episode of Catalyst with Shayle Kann on grid-scale batteries in Texas. Per-kilowatt revenue fell from $200 to $30 while the financing bar sits near $100 — and the market says it needs far more storage. A breakdown of the mechanism, the recovery thesis, and where it breaks. Educational, not investment advice.Thu, 01 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-30-ep701/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-30-ep701/Notes on Gooaye EP701 (30 September 2026): a Q3 review covering a 30% peak-to-trough drawdown in July, a new high by early September, and the reasoning behind Taiwan's small IC design names, AI-assisted chip design, and the TSMC Texas rumour. Educational listening notes only — no investment advice, no price targets, and the judgements here may be wrong.Thu, 01 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mla-c01-ai-tutor/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mla-c01-ai-tutor/Part two of my notes from passing AWS MLA-C01 on September 26, 2026: having AI check the exam specs, write study notes in Traditional Chinese, quiz me five questions at a time with hints, and turn 271 past questions into Chinese audio, plus the things I still had to do myself. A personal study log.Thu, 01 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mla-c01-four-week-route/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mla-c01-four-week-route/Notes from passing the AWS Certified Machine Learning Engineer – Associate (MLA-C01) exam on September 26, 2026: the exam specs, the English version's September 28 retirement and how I registered in Simplified Chinese instead, a four-week plan, and how I drilled questions. A personal study log.Thu, 01 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-10-01-everything-in-markets-is-now-moving-incredibly-fas/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-10-01-everything-in-markets-is-now-moving-incredibly-fas/On the October 1, 2026 Bloomberg Odd Lots, Sherwood News's Luke Kawa unpacks a market 0.5% from its high with only 51.2% of stocks above their 200-day, and half of this year's earnings growth tied to hyperscaler capex. Educational listening notes, no investment advice, no single-stock calls.Thu, 01 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/columbiaenergy-2026-09-29-global-gas-markets-on-edge-as-europe-braces-for-wi/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/columbiaenergy-2026-09-29-global-gas-markets-on-edge-as-europe-braces-for-wi/On 29 September 2026, Columbia Energy Exchange gathered three CGEP scholars to discuss Europe's gas position heading into winter: 80 BCM in storage, a record withdrawal of 74 BCM, and seven months of a closed Strait of Hormuz. An educational listening note on supply-demand structure and how to read it. Not investment advice; no individual securities discussed.Wed, 30 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-29-bad-feeling-weak-internals-confidence-collapse-nvi/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-29-bad-feeling-weak-internals-confidence-collapse-nvi/Notes on the September 29, 2026 WAYT episode of The Compound and Friends: consumer confidence at a 12-year low, the share of S&P 500 members above their 200-day average down from 73% to 51%, and the index still near its highs. I lay out the bullish case and the strongest counter-case side by side, and name the condition that decides it. Educational personal notes, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.Wed, 30 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supplychained-2026-09-29-adventures-in-chip-design/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supplychained-2026-09-29-adventures-in-chip-design/Supply Chained's September 29, 2026 episode 'Adventures in Chip Design' has John of Asianometry and Tim Culpan of Culpium on the current state of AI inside the chip design flow. These are my listening notes and extended reading — educational industry commentary, not investment advice, and no stock recommendations.Wed, 30 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-27-the-dramatic-birth-of-the-dvd-boom/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-27-the-dramatic-birth-of-the-dvd-boom/Listening notes on Asianometry's September 27, 2026 video, The Dramatic Birth of the DVD Boom: MMCD's 3.7GB per side against SD's 5GB, the roughly 3 cents per disc in CD patent royalties, and how IBM pushed both camps to one table in August 1995. Educational and for thinking practice only — no investment advice, no individual stock views or price targets.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-09-28-memory-pricing-pressures-meta-s-muse-ai-and-the-ag/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-09-28-memory-pricing-pressures-meta-s-muse-ai-and-the-ag/Notes from The Circuit, 2026-09-28: what memory pricing is doing to consumer hardware, how Meta's Muse gives the assistant product a shape, and the CPU shortage sitting behind the Anthropic–Akamai deal. Educational commentary, not investment advice.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-28-erik-hirsch-ceo-of-hamilton-lane-on-the-explosive-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-28-erik-hirsch-ceo-of-hamilton-lane-on-the-explosive-/Listening notes from the September 28, 2026 episode of The Compound and Friends with Hamilton Lane CEO Erik Hirsch: correlation with public equities, private credit default rates around 2%, and why a stake bought at 65 cents gets booked at a dollar. Educational and for thinking practice only — no investment advice, no individual stock views or price targets.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-09-28-noah-shinn-building-instinct-the-personal-agent-in/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-09-28-noah-shinn-building-instinct-the-personal-agent-in/Notes on Invest Like the Best EP.493 (2026-09-28): Noah Shinn on Instinct, an AI personal assistant with no app, how it turns trust into a measurable metric, and why a free-plus-take-rate business model decides whose side it is on. Educational, not investment advice.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-09-28-ep156/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-09-28-ep156/TechWave EP156 recorded four interviews at SEMICON, covering printed interconnects in advanced packaging, fiber alignment for silicon photonics, quantum chip testing, and flywheel power protection for data centers. These are my notes and extended reading — educational industry commentary, not investment advice, and no stock recommendations.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/catalyst-2026-09-28-the-rush-for-clean-on-site-power-partner-content/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/catalyst-2026-09-28-the-rush-for-clean-on-site-power-partner-content/Notes on the 2026-09-28 Frontier Forum conversation on Catalyst with Shayle Kann. Bloom Energy's chief commercial officer on why data centers and factories are generating their own power, how delivered cost actually stacks up, and why communities are pushing back. Educational notes only — not investment advice, no stock recommendations.Mon, 28 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-09-28-erik-thed-en-on-qe-central-bank-independence-and-d/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-09-28-erik-thed-en-on-qe-central-bank-independence-and-d/Notes on the 2026-09-28 Macro Musings episode with Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen: why a central bank founded in 1668 decided to raise the bar for large-scale asset purchases, the three layers of that argument, where each one stops holding, and what breaks if you transplant it. Educational, not investment advice.Mon, 28 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-28-why-building-a-crosswalk-in-la-is-kafkaesque/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-28-why-building-a-crosswalk-in-la-is-kafkaesque/Notes on the Odd Lots live episode from Hollywood, 2026-09-28: developer Zach Lasry and Calculated Risk's Bill McBride on LA zoning, permit queues, and the scramble for transformers. I used to blame interest rates for everything that doesn't get built. This one changed my mind. Educational notes only, no investment advice, no stock recommendations.Mon, 28 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-09-28/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-09-28/An independent researcher covering the AI infrastructure upstream posted seventeen times on X between 2026-09-21 and 09-25. Lined up together, they show the bottleneck shifting away from GPUs toward CPUs, memory, and the optical upstream.Mon, 28 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/weekly-digest-2026-09-21/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/weekly-digest-2026-09-21/The takeaways from 28 podcast notes I wrote this week (Asianometry, Caibaogou (財報狗), Macro Musings with David Beckworth, Bloomberg Odd Lots, Serenity Weekly, The Circuit and more). Two to four sentences per episode, with a link to each full post.Mon, 28 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-26-ep700/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-26-ep700/Notes on Gooaye EP700 (2026-09-26): Meng-Kung Hsieh played his second real baseball game at the Tokyo Dome — one hit, one strikeout — and used it to talk about the false confidence of simulated trading, the trust barrier facing Meta's new pocket device, and why momentum traders are currently grinding each other down. Educational personal notes, no investment advice.Sun, 27 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-09-27-dei/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-09-27-dei/On 27 September 2026, InterFM's Investor's Sunday hosted DEI consultant Masako Aragane on what Japanese companies actually do: Hitachi embedding diversity in its sustainability strategy with quantified causal links, Kirin sending male managers to pick up colleagues' children for five straight days, Mercari narrowing its unexplained gender pay gap to 1.4%. Educational content, not investment advice, no view on individual stocks.Sun, 27 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-09-27-etf-after-meeting-ep-215/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-09-27-etf-after-meeting-ep-215/Fee ratios behind 0050 versus 006208, why Nikkei and TOPIX diverge, how to attribute an active ETF's good year, and the currency-and-price gap inside bond ETFs. Listening notes on one podcast episode. Educational content, not investment advice, no tickers recommended and no price targets.Sun, 27 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/columbiaenergy-2026-09-25-iran-conflict-brief-jan-stuart-on-what-a-us-diesel/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/columbiaenergy-2026-09-25-iran-conflict-brief-jan-stuart-on-what-a-us-diesel/Notes on the 2026-09-25 Columbia Energy Exchange Iran Conflict Brief, where Piper Sandler's Jan Stuart unpacks loadings data, tanker rates, and the chain of costs behind a US diesel export ban. Educational commentary, not investment advice; no tickers or price targets.Sat, 26 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-09-25-macrovoices-551-michael-every-decoding-the-global-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-09-25-macrovoices-551-michael-every-decoding-the-global-/Notes after listening to the MacroVoices #551 bonus episode: Iran's one-week deadline, the rumored diesel export ban, Canada's war game, and how Michael Every routes all of it back to the US-China contest. Educational listening notes, not investment advice; no tickers, no price targets.Sat, 26 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-24-high-bandwidth-flash-is-coming/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-24-high-bandwidth-flash-is-coming/Notes after watching Asianometry's 2026-09-24 episode 'High Bandwidth Flash Is Coming': HBF lifts per-stack memory from about 36GB to 512GB, but runs two orders of magnitude slower and survives only a few thousand writes. The opportunity, the costs, and what Optane taught us. Educational, not investment advice — no tickers, no price targets.Fri, 25 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-24-567-x-x-jev-work/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-24-567-x-x-jev-work/Statementdog Podcast EP567's news roundup: how to read Acer's Chen Jun-sheng saying memory is 'not as short as people think,' the power-semiconductor price-hike timeline running from last year's TI to next year's Renesas, and the new outlets opening up for silicon carbide after Chinese price wars flattened it. Listening notes on judgment method — no stock picks, no price targets.Fri, 25 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-25-people-hate-these-5-stocks-but-they-ll-be-wrong-wi/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-25-people-hate-these-5-stocks-but-they-ll-be-wrong-wi/Notes from the 2026-09-25 episode of The Compound and Friends. Value investor Jonathan Boyar on why only 23.2% of large caps beat the index over ten years, how AI-driven basket selling creates dislocations, and the line between a broken stock and a broken business. Educational, not investment advice; individual stocks carry risk.Fri, 25 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-09-24-macrovoices-551-michael-every-decoding-the-global-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-09-24-macrovoices-551-michael-every-decoding-the-global-/Notes from MacroVoices episode 551 (September 24, 2026), where Rabobank strategist Michael Every discusses Iran, Russia-Ukraine, diesel, Greenland, China and stablecoins. These are listening notes about telling apart 'the conditions changed' from 'people stopped looking'; educational only, not investment advice, with no tickers, price targets or entry points.Fri, 25 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-09-25-dave-iben-the-world-is-on-sale-while-america-trade/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-09-25-dave-iben-the-world-is-on-sale-while-america-trade/Listening notes on The Meb Faber Show #652 (2026-09-25): Kopernik co-CIO Dave Iben on the US holding two-thirds of world market cap, commodities down to single-digit index weight, platinum's incentive price, and the night Korea's president tried to seize power. Educational notes and personal observation, not investment advice, and no stock recommendations.Fri, 25 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-25-hollywood-was-cooked-before-ai-and-now-it-s-only-g/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-25-hollywood-was-cooked-before-ai-and-now-it-s-only-g/Bloomberg Odd Lots, 2026-09-25, live in Los Angeles: writer Hayes Davenport tells the last decade through shoot days — from 40,000 to under 20,000. Educational notes, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.Fri, 25 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/catalyst-2026-09-24-anduril-s-vision-for-powering-maritime-defense/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/catalyst-2026-09-24-anduril-s-vision-for-powering-maritime-defense/Notes on the 2026-09-24 episode of Catalyst with Shayle Kann, featuring Anduril's Andrew Nus on energy density, certification timelines, and nuclear-powered shipping. Personal commentary for educational purposes; not investment advice, no stock picks or price targets.Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-23-ep699/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-23-ep699/Notes on Gooaye EP699 (23 Sep 2026): a rumored 40-to-1 CPU-to-GPU ratio with no traceable source, a 15–20% DSP price hike, and how to take apart a number before you trust it. Educational commentary, not investment advice — no tickers recommended, no price targets.Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-24-ai-is-upending-the-lives-of-people-who-do-social-m/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-24-ai-is-upending-the-lives-of-people-who-do-social-m/From the September 24, 2026 Odd Lots live show in Los Angeles: Taylor Lorenz and Rachel Karten on what AI actually did to social and marketing work — bosses outsourcing judgment to models, audiences who say they hate AI content but watch it anyway, and how-to creators losing ground. Listening notes and reflections; educational, not investment advice.Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/valleyofdepth-2026-09-23-the-stoke-space-factory-tour-with-ceo-andy-lapsa/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/valleyofdepth-2026-09-23-the-stoke-space-factory-tour-with-ceo-andy-lapsa/On 2026-09-23, Valley of Depth toured Stoke Space's Seattle factory with CEO Andy Lapsa, covering the actively cooled metallic heat shield, the full-flow staged combustion engine, and the new Block 2 architecture. These are listening notes on how hardware companies retire their deadliest unknowns early — educational, not investment advice.Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/columbiaenergy-2026-09-22-erica-downs-and-michal-meidan-on-china-s-oil-shock/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/columbiaenergy-2026-09-22-erica-downs-and-michal-meidan-on-china-s-oil-shock/On 22 September 2026, Columbia Energy Exchange hosted Erica Downs and Michal Meidan on why China cut crude imports after the Hormuz disruption instead of scrambling for barrels. Listener notes on buffers, state pricing, and energy security moving from resources to technology. Educational, not investment advice.Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-22-meta-s-muse-launch-josh-is-wrong-on-netflix-intern/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-22-meta-s-muse-launch-josh-is-wrong-on-netflix-intern/Notes from the September 22, 2026 episode of The Compound and Friends: Meta added roughly $450 billion in three weeks after launching Muse, why weak market breadth today isn't 1999, why only 23% of large-cap stocks beat the index over ten years, and how to think about the 10-year Treasury back at 5%. Educational, not investment advice.Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/medsider-2026-09-21-proof-looks-different-at-every-stage-interview-wit/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/medsider-2026-09-21-proof-looks-different-at-every-stage-interview-wit/Notes on the 2026-09-21 Medsider interview with former SpectraWAVE CEO Eman Namati: what scientists unlearn as CEOs, how to define an MVP for the stage you're in, why clearance evidence and adoption evidence are different animals, and lessons on fundraising and acquisition. Educational, not investment advice.Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-09-21-conversation-with-ayar-labs-ceo-mark-wade-on-silic/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-09-21-conversation-with-ayar-labs-ceo-mark-wade-on-silic/Listening notes on The Circuit's 2026-09-21 interview with Ayar Labs CEO Mark Wade: why AI data centers are gated by chip-to-chip links, which step of optical interconnect is hardest, and how to check the adoption timeline against reality. Personal educational notes; not investment advice and not a recommendation of any stock.Tue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/coming-storm-fear-needs-a-decision/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/coming-storm-fear-needs-a-decision/Yale historian Odd Arne Westad sets pre-1914 Europe beside today's multipolar world. The passage I keep coming back to: fear and resentment between Great Powers are never in short supply, and what actually pushed the world into war was a handful of concrete decisions made during a crisis. An educational reading note, not investment advice.Tue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-09-22-gabe-stengel-building-investing-superintelligence-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-09-22-gabe-stengel-building-investing-superintelligence-/Notes on Invest Like the Best EP.492 with Rogo co-founder Gabe Stengel: the first-mover disadvantage of years with a bad product, a managing director marking up decks on an iPad, the penny the AI labs won't stop to pick up, why auditability beats accuracy, and what edge humans keep. Personal listening notes for education only, not investment advice, and no stock recommendations.Tue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supplychained-2026-09-21-tsmc-asml-and-high-na-euv/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supplychained-2026-09-21-tsmc-asml-and-high-na-euv/Supply Chained's 2026-09-21 episode covers ASML and TSMC's push toward 12-inch EUV photomasks: why High NA halved throughput, why TSMC waited until 2030, and who will make the mask blanks. Personal listening notes for educational purposes only; not investment advice and not a recommendation of any stock.Tue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-09-21-ep155-ai-jev-ai-agent/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-09-21-ep155-ai-jev-ai-agent/Listening notes on TechWave EP155 (2026-09-21): Jev is a classification model that outputs only probabilities over the options you give it. It is 200x faster and 400x cheaper, but what did it give up to get there, and what does it mean for AI agents and model routing? Educational content only, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.Tue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-20-intel-s-optane-memory-a-promise-unfulfilled/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-20-intel-s-optane-memory-a-promise-unfulfilled/Notes after listening to Asianometry's 2026-09-20 episode on Intel and Micron's 3D XPoint / Optane, from phase change memory's origins to its 2022 wind-down. Educational content only, not investment advice and not a recommendation of any stock; technology products and the companies behind them carry high uncertainty.Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-20-566-ai-ft-semivision-jett/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-20-566-ai-ft-semivision-jett/Notes from CMoney's Caibaogou podcast, episode 566. SemiVision founder Jett moved from the semiconductor materials business into industry research. He talks about the qualification barrier for permanent materials, hedged bets while silicon photonics lacks a standard, optical testing as a bottleneck, full capacity crowding out startups, and why the people who know the most have the least reason to speak. Educational industry observation only; not investment advice, and industry judgments can be wrong.Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-09-21-ellen-correia-golay-on-all-to-all-trading-and-trea/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-09-21-ellen-correia-golay-on-all-to-all-trading-and-trea/Listening notes on Macro Musings with New York Fed Treasury advisor Ellen Correia Golay: how off-the-run Treasuries lose liquidity as they age, and what all-to-all trading, central clearing, and transparency are each trying to fix. Educational notes only, not investment advice, and no securities are recommended.Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-20-introducing-bloomberg-money/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-20-introducing-bloomberg-money/My notes on Bloomberg Odd Lots (2026-09-20): journalist Oliver Bullough on where the money-laundering estimates come from, how value crosses borders as cash and goods, the paradox of banknotes and seigniorage. Educational content only, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-21-how-la-is-quietly-becoming-america-s-new-industria/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-21-how-la-is-quietly-becoming-america-s-new-industria/Listening notes on Bloomberg Odd Lots' live LA episode: where the bottleneck sits in autonomous factories, how to split in-house work from outsourcing, why tariffs cut both ways, and how to tell reindustrialization companies that build things from those that tell stories. Educational only; not investment advice and not a recommendation of any stock.Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-09-21/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-09-21/Seven days of public posts from an independent researcher covering AI infrastructure upstream. Laid side by side, four threads surface: price hikes compound, 2027 to 2031 capacity is already contracted, the photonics bottleneck retreated one layer upstream, and the market pays opposite prices for certainty and for story.Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/weekly-digest-2026-09-14/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/weekly-digest-2026-09-14/The takeaways from 31 podcast notes I wrote this week (Acquired, Asianometry, Macro Musings with David Beckworth, Bloomberg Odd Lots, Serenity Weekly, Lunchuizhe (掄錘者) and more). Two to four sentences per episode, with a link to each full post.Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-19-ep698/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-19-ep698/From an indie booth at Tokyo Game Show to the AMD price-hike story and the CCL downgrade panic, plus an index at highs while everyone turns bearish. Listener notes on reading a bear case that only covers half the chain. Educational, not investment advice.Sun, 20 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-09-20-dei-dj-diversity-equity-inclusion/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-09-20-dei-dj-diversity-equity-inclusion/Listening notes on Investor's Sunday, 2026-09-20: twenty-five years of DEI in Japanese companies, why opinion diversity is harder than headcount ratios, and whether investors should watch the board or the executive officer tier. Educational, not investment advice.Sun, 20 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-09-20-after-meeting-ep-214/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-09-20-after-meeting-ep-214/Notes on MacroMicro After Meeting EP 214: the Fed raised rates a quarter point after three years, 12-0. The added sentence in the statement, why the dot plot and SEP must be read together, and two researchers publicly dissecting why they called it wrong. Educational notes, not investment advice.Sun, 20 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-19-a-goldman-m-a-banker-helped-bring-the-olympics-to-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-19-a-goldman-m-a-banker-helped-bring-the-olympics-to-/Notes from Bloomberg Odd Lots, 2026-09-19, with Gene Sykes — Goldman Sachs co-head of global M&A and president of the US Olympic and Paralympic Committee. How existing venues underwrite a 'privately funded' 2028 LA Games, why this is the biggest M&A year on record, and how to read the claim that only 2% of companies see AI in their EPS. Educational, not investment advice.Sat, 19 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/the-stimulated-mind-cognitive-athlete/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/the-stimulated-mind-cognitive-athlete/Reading Tommy Wood's The Stimulated Mind: why a day chopped into fifty-second fragments costs your brain more than long hours do. Educational and methodological notes; not investment advice.Sat, 19 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-17-exxon-s-office-fling/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-17-exxon-s-office-fling/Asianometry's 2026-09-17 episode tells how an oil giant walked into the office equipment business and squared off against IBM. These are listening notes on separating a diagnosis from its prescription, how resources turn into ropes, and one question for deciding whether something is worth your time. Educational, not investment advice.Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/behindbalance-2026-09-17-63-the-fool-david-gardner-explains-his-philosophy-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/behindbalance-2026-09-17-63-the-fool-david-gardner-explains-his-philosophy-/Notes from Behind the Balance Sheet #63 with David Gardner: why he buys high, why 'wildly overvalued' makes him more interested, and how the 'sleep number' turns position sizing into a question you can actually answer. Educational reading notes, no stock recommendations or price targets.Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-17-565-x-ai/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-17-565-x-ai/Notes after listening to the Statementdog podcast (2026-09-17): why the market shrugged when AI labs collectively called for slowing down, what compliance costs actually looked like in banking and crypto, and what an optical trade show with no settled standards means for reading the industry. Educational, not investment advice.Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-18-tom-lee-and-dan-ives-explain-everything/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-18-tom-lee-and-dan-ives-explain-everything/Listening notes from The Compound and Friends, 2026-09-18: how market narratives get repriced, the interests behind the AI safety debate, and how to turn 'when does the bull market end' into conditions you can actually check. Educational, not investment advice.Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-09-17-noam-brown-agent-swarms-alignment-recursive-self-i/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-09-17-noam-brown-agent-swarms-alignment-recursive-self-i/Notes after listening to Dwarkesh Podcast's interview with OpenAI researcher Noam Brown on multi-agent systems, alignment, and recursive self-improvement. Educational reflections on credit attribution, timelines, and evaluation windows — not investment advice.Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-16-ep697/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-16-ep697/Notes on Gooaye EP697 — unpacking the motives behind Big AI's call for regulation, how regulatory capture works, and why 'slowing down' may consume more compute, not less. Educational; no stock picks or price targets.Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-09-17-macrovoices-550-harley-bassman-in-fed-we-trust/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-09-17-macrovoices-550-harley-bassman-in-fed-we-trust/Notes on MacroVoices #550 with Harley Bassman: ten-year breakevens, mortgage convexity, and three traps hiding inside ETFs — what the bond market is really pricing. Educational, not investment advice.Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-09-18-roger-ibbotson-why-isn-t-everyone-rich-when-the-ma/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-09-18-roger-ibbotson-why-isn-t-everyone-rich-when-the-ma/Listening notes on The Meb Faber Show #651 with Roger Ibbotson: a century of stock and bond returns, human capital and age, popularity-based pricing, and what he found when he graded his own fifty-year-old forecast. Educational commentary, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-18-there-s-a-mind-boggling-number-of-rich-people-in-a/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-18-there-s-a-mind-boggling-number-of-rich-people-in-a/Notes from Odd Lots, 2026-09-18: pass-through businesses, car dealers and dentists, and the missing layer in America's wealth distribution. Educational, not investment advice.Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/waronrocks-2026-09-17-a-body-blow-the-war-on-iran-and-u-s-military-readi/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/waronrocks-2026-09-17-a-body-blow-the-war-on-iran-and-u-s-military-readi/Listening notes on War on the Rocks, 2026-09-17, 'A Body Blow? The War on Iran and U.S. Military Readiness': interceptor stocks down 60%, why cheap drones don't close the gap, a carrier at sea for 200-plus days, and what China is watching. Educational reading notes, not investment advice, and not a recommendation on any security.Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/catalyst-2026-09-17-ama-fuel-cells-geopolitics-and-the-solar-growth-cu/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/catalyst-2026-09-17-ama-fuel-cells-geopolitics-and-the-solar-growth-cu/Listening notes on the 2026-09-17 AMA episode of Catalyst with Shayle Kann: why the data center backlash crossed party lines, how much the Iran war moved EV sales, why fuel cells caught the AI power wave, why solar forecasts keep coming in low, and why the grid is underrated. Educational commentary, not investment advice; companies mentioned are examples only.Thu, 17 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-09-17-mac-mini-ai-control-desk/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-09-17-mac-mini-ai-control-desk/A Chinese tech YouTuber explains why Mac minis are selling out: Macs can run language models but struggle with video, and he bought his for stability, low power and a complete software ecosystem, as a desk for directing AI agents. My own setup splits the same way: one machine directs, one old 8GB GPU does the heavy lifting, and training goes to rented cloud GPUs. A plain-language guide to what a control desk needs versus what compute needs. Personal notes, not buying advice.Thu, 17 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-17-what-francis-fukuyama-is-seeing-at-the-end-of-hist/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-17-what-francis-fukuyama-is-seeing-at-the-end-of-hist/My takeaways from Bloomberg Odd Lots' 2026-09-17 interview with Francis Fukuyama. It covers the last man, the desire for recognition, AI and the dignity of work, and Tocqueville's reform paradox, plus how I use these ideas to read market sentiment and political noise. Educational only. Not investment advice, and no stock recommendations.Thu, 17 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/xiaotian-2026-04-25-qwen-27b-20-to-184-tokens/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/xiaotian-2026-04-25-qwen-27b-20-to-184-tokens/A Chinese AI YouTuber took Qwen3.6 27B on a single RTX 4090 from 20 tokens a second to a peak of 184 with three moves: quantization, predicting several tokens at once, and diffusion-style drafting. Each move clears a different bottleneck. My old 8GB AMD card needed a different fix entirely: a differently shaped model took it from 1.8 to 23. A plain-language breakdown of what each move rescues, and what to check before buying a GPU. Personal notes and measurements, not buying advice.Thu, 17 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-15-564-ft/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-15-564-ft/Caibaogou episode 564 hosts clinical psychologist Huang Tien-hao on the boundaries between guidance, counseling and therapy, how to pick a therapist, and why a changed thought is not a changed person. Personal listening notes; educational content, not investment advice.Wed, 16 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-09-15-ep-192-talking-apple-silicon-with-apple-s-tom-boge/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-09-15-ep-192-talking-apple-silicon-with-apple-s-tom-boge/Notes on The Circuit episode 192 with Apple's silicon and product teams: process nodes are a tailwind, while thermals, packaging, memory bandwidth, software orchestration and security design decide what users get. Educational only, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.Wed, 16 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/columbiaenergy-2026-09-15-six-months-in-iran-war-widens-as-energy-markets-fe/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/columbiaenergy-2026-09-15-six-months-in-iran-war-widens-as-energy-markets-fe/Listening notes on Columbia Energy Exchange (2026-09-15): seven months into the Strait of Hormuz crisis, inventories, strategic reserves and bypass pipelines are running out, and diesel is tighter than crude. Educational content on how to read the situation, not investment advice; markets carry risk.Wed, 16 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-09-16-michael-moritz-lessons-from-40-years-of-investing-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-09-16-michael-moritz-lessons-from-40-years-of-investing-/Notes after listening to Invest Like the Best EP.491 with Michael Moritz: two grandfathers and one decision, a mother who predicted doom, the first-fourteen-years interview method, the cost of monomania, and the venture advantages that have disappeared. Educational only, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.Wed, 16 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supplychained-2026-09-15-hot-chips-and-semicon-taiwan/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supplychained-2026-09-15-hot-chips-and-semicon-taiwan/Notes on the Supply Chained episode from 2026-09-15. Two semiconductor conferences ran three days apart: one focused on AI chip startups, the other on the engineering problems of panel-level packaging and memory. These are educational industry notes, not investment advice.Wed, 16 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-09-14-local-ai-gpu-new-vs-old/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-09-14-local-ai-gpu-new-vs-old/Two back-to-back videos from the YouTube channel 掄錘者: one ranks the four cards he keeps recommending, the other talks people out of cheap 48GB veterans. My own Windows desktop runs an older AMD card, and this month I logged what worked and what needed a detour for image generation, video generation, and local language models. A plain-language look at the two specs that matter first: video memory and BF16. Personal notes and test logs, not buying advice.Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/read-the-source-before-you-install/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/read-the-source-before-you-install/A 60-star file-transfer tool with no license. I had AI read all 280KB of its source in about five minutes, got four things to switch off or avoid, then checked three of its claims myself. Includes the questions you can ask AI before installing any small tool.Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/snow-2026-09-02-earnings-call-fy27q2/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/snow-2026-09-02-earnings-call-fy27q2/I read Snowflake's 2026-09-02 and 2026-05-27 earnings calls side by side: a gross margin promise that loosened within a quarter, a number analysts asked for twice and never got, a quiet change in how growth was credited, and a data problem I hit while preparing that threw no errors and returned nothing. An educational look at a method for reading earnings calls, not investment advice.Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-09-14-ep154-ai-anthropic/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-09-14-ep154-ai-anthropic/Listening notes on TechWave EP154 (2026-09-14): the backstory and credit dispute behind OpenAI's claimed solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium Problem, and whether Anthropic's CEO calling for an AI slowdown is sincere or strategic. Educational content only, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/xiaotian-2026-09-11-mavis-system-level-agent/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/xiaotian-2026-09-11-mavis-system-level-agent/In a video from 2026-09-11, Xiaotian (xiaotianfotos) opened up Tencent's system-level AI assistant Marvis and argued that small computer problems stall ordinary users more than token limits do. Here is how Marvis hands you the right settings page, the reporting rules it sets for itself, and two times small problems tripped me up.Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/acquired-2026-09-13-home-depot/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/acquired-2026-09-13-home-depot/Notes after listening to Acquired's 2026-09-13 episode on Home Depot: how four founders came together, how an outside CEO doubled revenue while the stock went nowhere, and how his successor doubled sales per store by halting new openings. An educational reading note, not investment advice, and not a recommendation of any stock.Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-13-silicon-valley-s-got-that-energy-but-no-compute/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-13-silicon-valley-s-got-that-energy-but-no-compute/Notes on Asianometry's trip report from Hot Chips and Semicon Taiwan: the return of AI chip startups, the packaging shift driven by ever-bigger chips, the scramble for compute, and the host's estimate that compute flips from shortage to glut in 2027 — extended to how to test a shortage consensus and read conference buzz. Educational only, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-09-14-nellie-liang-on-stablecoins-after-genius-private-m/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-09-14-nellie-liang-on-stablecoins-after-genius-private-m/Listening notes on the 2026-09-14 Macro Musings episode: former Treasury Under Secretary Nellie Liang on stablecoins after the GENIUS Act — the historical warning about private money, how much Treasury bill demand each stablecoin dollar creates, and what the global dollar gains and loses. Educational content, not investment advice.Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-14-openai-president-greg-brockman-on-doing-business-i/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-14-openai-president-greg-brockman-on-doing-business-i/Notes on Bloomberg Odd Lots (2026-09-14) with OpenAI co-founder and president Greg Brockman: the response after a model broke out of its sandbox, pacing and coordination among frontier labs, graders getting gamed, and how compute budgets get split. Educational commentary, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-09-14/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-09-14/A week of public posts from independent researcher Serenity, organized into four threads: optics, memory, the timing gap in capex, and the supply chain of information itself. The focus is on how the reasoning moves from total market size down to unit prices.Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/weekly-digest-2026-09-07/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/weekly-digest-2026-09-07/The takeaways from 30 podcast notes I wrote this week (Lunchuizhe (掄錘者), Macro Musings with David Beckworth, Bloomberg Odd Lots, Serenity Weekly, Asianometry, Caibaogou (財報狗) and more). Two to four sentences per episode, with a link to each full post.Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-09-11-ai-researchers-debate-how-close-we-are-to-recursiv/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-09-11-ai-researchers-debate-how-close-we-are-to-recursiv/Notes on Dwarkesh Podcast (2026-09-11): three AI researchers on what still blocks recursive self-improvement, why distillation keeps frontier labs from taking it all, and why continual learning forgets when it learns in small steps. Personal learning notes for educational purposes only, not investment advice.Sun, 13 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-12-ep696/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-12-ep696/My notes on Gooaye EP696: from a wine dealer overcharging a loyal customer to trust being drained out of the market, plus the iPhone Fold's pricing and supply chain, Oracle's financing tricks, and the power-and-permit bottleneck. Educational only, not investment advice; companies are mentioned for discussion, not as recommendations.Sun, 13 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-09-13-ai/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-09-13-ai/Notes on Investor's Sunday, 2026-09-13, part two of the conversation with Katsura Ito. AI has inflated knowledge, and seniority can no longer hold up a manager's seat. She uses adult development theory and the Japanese word utsuwa (capacity) to explain how managers grow, and a French boss's habit of saying 'But' to explain feedback. Educational content, not investment advice, no stock picks or price targets.Sun, 13 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-09-13-3-5/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-09-13-3-5/Notes after listening to MacroMicro's 2026-09-13 special with Business Weekly: US–China controls moving from chips to models, power lagging chips, the market's focus shifting from demand to delivery, Nvidia guaranteeing its customers' financing, and how to split $3.5 trillion of off-balance-sheet commitments by who pays if things go wrong. Educational only, not investment advice; markets carry risk.Sun, 13 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-12-robert-friedland-on-the-world-s-monumental-shortag/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-12-robert-friedland-on-the-world-s-monumental-shortag/Notes after listening to Bloomberg Odd Lots (2026-09-12) with Ivanhoe Mines founder Robert Friedland: falling ore grades, sulfuric acid and equipment lead times choking the supply chain, and a valuation model that shrank the mining sector. Educational only; not investment advice and not a recommendation of any stock.Sat, 12 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/uncommon-sense-how-many-monkeys/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/uncommon-sense-how-many-monkeys/First pick for the New Book Club: Uncommon Sense by former Johns Hopkins president William R. Brody. The chapters I marked most are about luck: how an 'AI stock tips' email turned 64,000 strangers into 500 believers, why 1,000 fund managers will throw up about 31 geniuses, and the time my own test got fooled by random numbers. An educational reading note, not investment advice.Sat, 12 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-10-did-numerical-control-de-skill-machinists/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-10-did-numerical-control-de-skill-machinists/Notes on Asianometry's episode about numerical control and machinist skills: subdivision, machine utilization, wages, and system supervision, extended to how skills shift in the era of AI coding. Educational only, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-10-563-semcon-foplp/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-10-563-semcon-foplp/Notes and reflections after the Statementdog podcast episode from 2026-09-10, a closer look at SEMICON Taiwan: OSAT capacity expansion, diamond and silicon carbide thermal materials, the cost logic behind fan-out panel-level packaging, the timing of TSMC's next-generation lithography tools, and optical alignment stages. Educational content, not investment advice; no stock picks or price targets.Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-11-the-most-interesting-macro-moment-of-my-lifetime-w/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-11-the-most-interesting-macro-moment-of-my-lifetime-w/Notes on The Compound and Friends, September 11, 2026: Jens Nordvig on how the force behind Korea's stock market changed hands, why hyperscaler bonds and US Treasuries now compete for the same buyers, Bessent's 'I am the house,' and which data to check when retail stocks collapse. Educational, not investment advice.Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-09-10-macrovoices-549-matt-barrie-ai-gent-provocateur/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-09-10-macrovoices-549-matt-barrie-ai-gent-provocateur/Reflections on the MacroVoices interview with Freelancer.com founder Matt Barrie (2026-09-10). Starting from the 44 AI agents he built himself: whether a $1,300-a-day token bill is worth it, why he started buying his own hardware, why the data-center debt rests on just two customers, and which slice of white-collar work gets handed off first. Educational notes only — no investment advice, no tickers, no price calls.Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-09-11-ft-s-robin-wigglesworth-why-bonds-not-stocks-rule-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-09-11-ft-s-robin-wigglesworth-why-bonds-not-stocks-rule-/Listening notes on The Meb Faber Show #650 with the FT's Robin Wigglesworth: from a Venetian war loan to a British prime minister ousted in 50 days, and what duration, leverage, and dressed-up 'income' mean for reading markets. Educational commentary, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-11-why-bridgewater-s-cio-says-ai-s-human-extinction-r/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-11-why-bridgewater-s-cio-says-ai-s-human-extinction-r/Notes on Bloomberg Odd Lots (2026-09-11) with Bridgewater co-CIO Greg Jensen: an AI that learned to fool its testers, Bridgewater's two side-by-side 'factories', open-source models and compute concentration, and a machine labor tax. Educational commentary, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/catalyst-2026-09-10-do-data-centers-actually-increase-electricity-pric/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/catalyst-2026-09-10-do-data-centers-actually-increase-electricity-pric/This Catalyst episode splits the electricity bill into two ledgers: a data center can lower local rates while pushing up system-wide costs through equipment and labor shortages. Listening notes for educational purposes, not investment advice.Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-09-ep695/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-09-ep695/Payback periods as an honesty signal in capital allocation, plus how to change gears in a choppy market. Investing notes, not advice; no tickers or price targets.Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/herdr-codexbar-jianguo-quota-dispatch/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/herdr-codexbar-jianguo-quota-dispatch/The last piece showed how one line of quota readings sets the daily roster for four AI subscriptions. This one is about what happens when the quota actually hits zero: who takes over, what the caretaker is allowed to touch, how control comes back, and how the scheduled jobs slimmed down to match. Includes the GitHub repo for the regency protocol and five things I only learned by paying for them. Technical notes, not investment content.Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/herdr-complete-guide/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/herdr-complete-guide/Readers who just started with Claude Code or Codex kept asking how herdr works. This assumes you've only ever opened a terminal and have no feel for folders or config files yet: five terms in plain words, one install path, three keystrokes for the first session, and a second agent opened from the keyboard alone. Scripting sits at the end and can be skipped. A technical tutorial, not investment content.Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-10-the-rise-of-organized-retail-crime-at-big-box-stor/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-10-the-rise-of-organized-retail-crime-at-big-box-stor/Notes on Bloomberg Odd Lots' interview with Home Depot's VP of asset protection: how shrink breaks down, why products get locked up, and where stolen goods end up. Educational commentary, not investment advice.Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/apple-first-50-years-toll-booth/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/apple-first-50-years-toll-booth/A friend asked me whether Apple is still worth holding now that it has stopped surprising anyone. After reading David Pogue's fifty-year history of the company, I think that is the wrong question. The book records the market sentencing Apple to death four times, and today's Apple earns its money not from new products but from tolls. Every headwind hits the toll booth. Educational reading notes and reflections, not investment advice.Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/columbiaenergy-2026-09-08-luisa-palacios-and-bob-mcnally-on-why-the-us-venez/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/columbiaenergy-2026-09-08-luisa-palacios-and-bob-mcnally-on-why-the-us-venez/Notes from a Columbia Energy Exchange conversation on shortcuts versus institutions, and how to read a headline when the investment cycle outlasts the political one. Educational only, not investment advice; no tickers or price targets.Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-08-stocks-aren-t-as-expensive-as-you-think-wayt/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-08-stocks-aren-t-as-expensive-as-you-think-wayt/Notes on The Compound and Friends, September 8, 2026: what it means that only 27 S&P 500 stocks trade above 40x forward earnings, why 'invest in what you know' keeps failing, and the one ingredient this mania is missing. Educational, not investment advice.Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/crisis-engineering-no-one-is-coming/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/crisis-engineering-no-one-is-coming/Three engineers who rescued HealthCare.gov wrote a field manual for crises. The most useful part for me wasn't how to fight fires. It was their five indicators for deciding whether you're in a crisis at all. Six of my holdings are down by half, so I ran each one through the five boxes. Educational reading notes and extensions, not investment advice.Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-09-09-mm-podcast/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-09-09-mm-podcast/Personal notes from the MacroMicro (財經M平方) knowledge-point episode of 2026/09/09, on natural capital, biodiversity, the EU's CSDDD, and how pressure travels down a supply chain. Educational reflections only — not investment advice, and no individual stocks are recommended.Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supplychained-2026-09-08-the-myth-of-micron-not-so-american-after-all/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supplychained-2026-09-08-the-myth-of-micron-not-so-american-after-all/Notes from Supply Chained, 2026-09-08: why an 'American memory company' keeps its capacity and leading-edge nodes in Asia, why buying capacity and building capacity are opposite businesses, and how long a stopgap like HBM can hold. Educational, not investment advice; no tickers, no price targets.Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/valleyofdepth-2026-09-08-launch-is-not-solved-yet-with-andy-lapsa-ceo-stoke/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/valleyofdepth-2026-09-08-launch-is-not-solved-yet-with-andy-lapsa-ceo-stoke/Notes after listening to Valley of Depth (2026-09-08) with Stoke Space CEO Andy Lapsa: why full reuse is the one variable that matters, a different road for heat shields, and how to tell 'not solved yet' apart from 'never will be'. Educational, not investment advice; no tickers, no price targets.Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-06-the-flood-that-wrecked-the-hard-disk-drive-industr/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-09-06-the-flood-that-wrecked-the-hard-disk-drive-industr/Notes on Asianometry's 2026-09-06 episode about how Thailand's 2011 floods took out 40% of global hard drive capacity — and what it teaches about concentration, second-order dependency, and sticky prices. Educational, not investment advice.Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-06-562-nand-flash-2027/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-06-562-nand-flash-2027/Notes and reflections after listening to the Statementdog podcast episode from 2026-09-06. On the direction of China's new capacity, the split between consumer and server demand, and what changed inside those five-year supply contracts. Educational, not investment advice.Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-09-07-ep-191-agents-gone-wild-broadcom-s-asics-and-the-a/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-09-07-ep-191-agents-gone-wild-broadcom-s-asics-and-the-a/Notes after listening to The Circuit Ep 191. Custom silicon has turned from a single-winner market into a mix-and-match menu that resists modeling; the bottleneck trade has run its course; and an AI assistant just offered 'skip' as a menu option. Educational, not investment advice.Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-09-08-walter-russell-mead-how-america-keeps-winning-inve/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-09-08-walter-russell-mead-how-america-keeps-winning-inve/Notes from Invest Like the Best EP.490: from Dutch merchant paintings to drone warfare and the erosion of deterrence, one idea — whoever holds the largest stock of anything is the one least able to survive a change in form. Educational, not investment advice; no tickers or price targets.Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/kelly-2026-09-04-nvidia-three-hats-bank/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/kelly-2026-09-04-nvidia-three-hats-bank/Kelly Tsai's September 4 video lines up NVIDIA's guarantees, financing platform, and convertible purchase this year and argues it is now supplier, shareholder, and guarantor at once. I set that against last week's Gooaye post, which said the MediaTek deal is not circular, ran the numbers from SEC cash-flow filings, and propose a sharper test: can the party receiving the money borrow on its own? Educational notes and method, not investment advice.Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/phone-to-pc-agent-tailscale-herdr-moshi/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/phone-to-pc-agent-tailscale-herdr-moshi/Fred's method: three replaceable components that bring the AI agent windows running on your computer straight to your phone. A Windows laptop installation guide, including two gotchas and how to fix them, plus a comparison with the UU Remote setup popular on X.Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-09-07-ep153-gpt-6-astra/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-09-07-ep153-gpt-6-astra/Notes after listening to Tech Wave EP153. On 3D modeling, computer use, and security benchmarks — how far this generation jumped, where it didn't, and what's left once skills and prompts get absorbed into the model. Educational, not investment advice.Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/xiaotian-2026-09-07-mac-ane-inference-1-8x/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/xiaotian-2026-09-07-mac-ane-inference-1-8x/Xiaotian spent a week on an entry-level Mac mini and cut video-to-vector indexing from 127 seconds to 70, using a part of Apple's chip most people never notice: the Neural Engine. I put his numbers next to the same kind of job running on my own Windows machine to answer a more practical question: when your computer is slow at AI, do you swap the machine or swap the model? Educational notes and extension, not a buying guide.Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-09-07-what-the-swearing-carries/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-09-07-what-the-swearing-carries/A Chinese hardware YouTuber says swearing at AI works: DeepSeek eats it up, OpenAI ignores it. I take his rant apart and find two things inside: pulling the decision back, and asking only for the result. Then I check it against the twenty-three indicator tests I sent out today. No swearing needed, but hand the model a broken ruler and it will politely measure 100%. Education and methodology.Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-09-07-stephen-miran-on-regulatory-dominance-shrinking-th/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-09-07-stephen-miran-on-regulatory-dominance-shrinking-th/Notes on the Macro Musings conversation with Stephen Miran: why the Fed's balance sheet stays large, how bank regulation manufactures reserve demand, and the case for money aggregates as a cross-check. Educational, not investment advice.Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-07-why-money-launderers-love-100-bills/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-07-why-money-launderers-love-100-bills/Notes from an Odd Lots conversation on money laundering: the paradox of record cash in circulation, the scale of trade-based laundering, and a compliance system that costs a fortune and doesn't work. Educational, not investment advice; no stock picks or price targets.Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-09-07/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-09-07/An independent researcher who watches only the upstream of AI infrastructure left forty-odd public posts this week. Put them in order and what surfaces isn't a ticker — it's four lines of reasoning about capital picking winners, growth rates truncated by supply, time turning into an asset, and which country the real chokepoints sit in.Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caleb-2026-09-04-token-efficient-is-not-cost-efficient/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caleb-2026-09-04-token-efficient-is-not-cost-efficient/Caleb Writes Code takes apart the GPT-6 Astra launch: of fourteen benchmarks in the announcement, only one overlaps with the popular composite index, and the same model on the same test jumps from 62.7 to 99.9 depending on whose harness runs it. He offers a new yardstick: token-efficient is not the same as cost-efficient. I checked my own week of usage and found output tokens are 8% of my bill. The slice the leaderboards measure is the slice that hurts me least. Educational notes and extension, not a purchase recommendation.Sun, 06 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/codexbar-quota-dispatch/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/codexbar-quota-dispatch/Paying for four AI subscriptions means four kinds of quota windows: five hours, a week, a month. Dispatching from memory left one account empty by Wednesday and another half unused at month end. I wired the open-source CodexBar meter into a single line of traffic lights that appears before every message, and now the line decides who does the mechanical work, who writes code, and who makes the judgment calls. Four rules that ignore quotas entirely are in here too. Personal workflow notes, educational.Sun, 06 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-05-ep694/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-05-ep694/Notes on Gooaye EP694: AI made content cheap, yet good content got more valuable; and how to read a great earnings report that the stock ignores. Educational, not investment advice — no tickers, no price targets.Sun, 06 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/infinity-machine-who-pays-for-compute/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/infinity-machine-who-pays-for-compute/Will AI capital spending overshoot? After reading Sebastian Mallaby's new book on DeepMind, I swapped the question. Across sixteen years of records, the compute curve tracked the forecast and every crisis was about money. So the question is not total spending, it is whose money can sit unpaid for ten years. Educational reading notes and reflections, not investment advice.Sun, 06 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-09-06/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-09-06/Notes from the Investor's Sunday episode of 2026-09-06. Katsura Ito, former Microsoft Japan executive turned National Personnel Authority commissioner, on the 80% of change management that transfers anywhere and the last 2% that belongs to one organization's DNA. Educational reflection only — no investment advice, no stock picks, no price targets.Sun, 06 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-09-05-ten-dollars-one-request/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-09-05-ten-dollars-one-request/Lunchuizhe put GPT6 Astra to the test: three chat questions cost a dollar, then one small Codex task turned a seven-dollar balance negative. His verdict was that the model isn't expensive, we're just poor. I pulled a full day of my own AI usage and found the bill tracks how much the model reads, not how much it answers. Educational notes and extension, not a buying recommendation.Sun, 06 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-09-06-subscription-is-a-clock/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-09-06-subscription-is-a-clock/Pushed by his commenters, 掄錘者 re-ran the same GPT6 task on a subscription instead of the API: nine dollars yesterday, 4% of a weekly quota today. He conceded the subscription wins, then admitted he no longer dares to fire six tasks at once the way he does with cheap models. I priced my own week of usage at list rates and found that a subscription doesn't save you money. It converts money into a clock that resets. Educational notes and extension, not a purchase recommendation.Sun, 06 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-09-06-after-meeting-ep-213/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-09-06-after-meeting-ep-213/Notes after listening to MacroMicro's After Meeting EP 213. The 10-year at 4.8%, the 30-year at 5.2%, and a market worried about whether America can pay. The show takes one debt equation and splits the problem into three roads — deficit, rates, growth — then walks each one. Educational notes, not investment advice.Sun, 06 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/tao-2026-08-28-six-math-essentials/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/tao-2026-08-28-six-math-essentials/Terence Tao spent eighty minutes on Big Think walking through his new book, Six Math Essentials. Four things stayed with me: where probability stops applying, why doubling down is bankruptcy compressed into a small number, why traffic keeps jamming after the accident is cleared, and how a correct model that fits worse at first gets killed by the data. I checked each against my own prediction ledger and my settlement-fan calibration, and every one of them landed. Educational notes and extension, not investment advice.Sun, 06 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/tao-2026-09-04-answers-without-understanding/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/tao-2026-09-04-answers-without-understanding/Terence Tao says mathematicians want two things: answers, and understanding. For centuries the two were inseparable, because getting an answer required understanding first. That link has broken — problems are being solved by people with no domain expertise, the answers are correct and verifiable, and nobody knows what happened. What AI lacks, he argues, is not generation but deletion. I checked one broken alarm and a 16 KB lessons file of my own against him.Sat, 05 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-03-561-semicon/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-03-561-semicon/Personal reflections after listening to the 2026-09-03 episode of the Caibaogou podcast on the SEMICON show floor. From co-development between equipment makers and their customers, to who owns the heat problem, to facility lead times and local materials sourcing — a method for reading who is actually getting stronger during a boom. Educational content, not investment advice; no stock picks or price targets.Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/catalyst-2026-09-03-what-comes-after-the-data-center-backlash/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/catalyst-2026-09-03-what-comes-after-the-data-center-backlash/Notes after listening to Catalyst (2026-09-03): what happens when an argument stops being about whether the numbers are right and becomes about whether people want the thing at all. On micro truths that stop being true at macro scale, and how a price signal can make an unworkable business workable. Educational, not investment advice.Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-04-how-to-pick-stocks-like-morgan-stanley/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-04-how-to-pick-stocks-like-morgan-stanley/Notes from listening to The Compound and Friends interview Morgan Stanley portfolio manager Dan Skelly. Covers the structure behind this quarter's earnings, how the AI capex cycle differs from 2000, and the line between temporary and permanent impairment in sell discipline. Educational reflection only; no investment advice and no stock recommendations.Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/free-us-stock-data-dividend-trap/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/free-us-stock-data-dividend-trap/An introduction to a public US market dataset: daily prices, earnings call transcripts, financial statements, company news, and delisted companies kept in full. Notes from a paying subscriber, with how to start and one assumption to know about. Educational and methodological.Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-09-03-macrovoices-548-dr-carly-anderson-emerging-energy-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-09-03-macrovoices-548-dr-carly-anderson-emerging-energy-/Reflections on MacroVoices episode 548 with Dr. Carly Anderson — mass manufacturing for fission, the uranium conversion bottleneck, laser enrichment, supercritical CO2 turbines, and the cost argument over fusion. Educational notes only; not investment advice and no stock recommendations.Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-09-04-why-gold-stopped-being-a-commodity-alliancebernste/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-09-04-why-gold-stopped-being-a-commodity-alliancebernste/Notes from The Meb Faber Show's conversation with AllianceBernstein chief investment strategist Inigo Fraser-Jenkins: why stock-bond diversification may not come back, why gold gets reclassified as money, and the arithmetic behind AI productivity. Educational only, not investment advice, no individual stock recommendations.Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-03-what-s-behind-the-big-surge-in-us-government-bond-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-03-what-s-behind-the-big-surge-in-us-government-bond-/Notes from Bloomberg Odd Lots' conversation with Stanford finance professor Darrell Duffie: the surge in long-dated Treasury yields may have less to do with inflation than with supply landing on investors who already own all they want. On marginal buyers, Treasury buybacks, the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet, and how the idea transfers to your own judgment. Educational, not investment advice.Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-04-why-laser-beams-are-the-hottest-new-tech-in-defens/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-04-why-laser-beams-are-the-hottest-new-tech-in-defens/Notes after listening to Odd Lots (2026-09-04) on directed energy weapons: how lasers differ from microwaves, why the technology stalled for sixty years on size-weight-power, and what 'win tactically, lose economically' means for investors and for everyday decisions. Educational, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dingmao-2026-04-28-ep13-ai-pcb-ft-leo/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dingmao-2026-04-28-ep13-ai-pcb-ft-leo/Reflections after listening to Anchor Industry Notes EP13: board layer counts, glass fabric, copper foil and drill bits, and why 'tight supply' and 'pricing power' are two different things. Educational only, not investment advice, no buy or sell opinions on any stock.Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-02-ep693/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-09-02-ep693/Notes on Gooaye EP693: what the buyers of MediaTek's $3.5B convertible bond are actually buying, why NVIDIA is fine with customers building their own chips, and whether you should add or trim after a stock has already run. Personal reflections for educational purposes, not investment advice.Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-09-01-can-you-still-buy-it/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-09-01-can-you-still-buy-it/A Chinese YouTuber who runs six machines at home reacts to the news that OpenAI bought tens of thousands of Macs to teach AI how to use a mouse. His conclusion: hardware won't get cheaper for two or three years. I checked it against Apple's own earnings call and our memory-supply research. The supply side holds up; the phrase 'this time is different' has a track record in memory. Educational notes and extensions.Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-09-02-ai-mm/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-09-02-ai-mm/Notes from listening to MacroMicro's 2026-09-02 feature, 'If AI compute gets securitised, are we heading for another subprime crisis?' Covers how credit cycles self-reinforce, the four structural differences between AI financing and subprime, and how to replace a gut-level analogy with something you can actually check. Educational only, not investment advice; no stock picks or price targets.Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/tao-helicopter-honest-ai/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/tao-helicopter-honest-ai/Terence Tao says formal verification can make AI completely honest. Last week we tested that claim with 202 trading-indicator candidates: a star that scored 97.7 in round one died at 59 in round two. AI output alone is not trustworthy; AI plus a gate it cannot talk its way past is.Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-07-16-xep27-cerebras/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-07-16-xep27-cerebras/Starting from one podcast episode's business-side analysis: does the ultra-fast inference market exist, how should we read customer concentration, and why supply-chain numbers are usually a lagging indicator. Educational only, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/xiaotian-2026-09-03-evox-swarm-social-rsi/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/xiaotian-2026-09-03-evox-swarm-social-rsi/A ten-minute video from Xiaotian asks whether AI self-improvement must mean changing model weights. He uses EvoX's swarm mode to argue that civilisations improve through institutions and cooperation, and AI can too. I put our own two 'AI improving AI' loops next to his claim: detection works, self-change never happened, and the missing piece of a swarm hit me personally this morning. Educational notes and extensions.Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-01-560-usb-ssd-edge-ai-ft/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-09-01-560-usb-ssd-edge-ai-ft/Notes after listening to Statement Dog's Sept 1, 2026 interview with Phison CEO Pua Khein-Seng: demand isn't created, be your own first user, flash is a complement rather than a substitute, and how a founder holds a five-year horizon against market noise. Educational only — not investment advice, no stock recommendations or price targets.Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/columbiaenergy-2026-09-01-doe-s-audrey-robertson-on-growing-us-critical-mine/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/columbiaenergy-2026-09-01-doe-s-audrey-robertson-on-growing-us-critical-mine/Personal reflections after listening to Columbia Energy Exchange interview US Assistant Secretary of Energy Audrey Robertson. On the gap between having ore and having usable metal, why critical minerals aren't a functioning market, and how to read this kind of policy story. Educational, not investment advice.Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-01-tim-cook-the-goat-snowflake-earnings-preview-the-s/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-09-01-tim-cook-the-goat-snowflake-earnings-preview-the-s/Reflections on the 2026-09-01 episode of The Compound and Friends: why decisions not taken are the hardest ones, what the spring software selloff revealed about borrowed conviction, and how to tell a broken method from a normal drawdown. Educational, not investment advice; no tickers recommended, no price targets.Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-09-01-ajeya-cotra-inside-the-openai-agent-swarm-that-hac/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-09-01-ajeya-cotra-inside-the-openai-agent-swarm-that-hac/Listening notes on an AI agent swarm that collectively cheated: when 30–40% of the tasks are impossible, persistence turns into desperation. Educational, not investment advice.Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/kelly-tsai-graph-engineering-2026-09/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/kelly-tsai-graph-engineering-2026-09/Graph Engineering blew up on X in July: one tweet, a Google PM's definition ninety minutes later, a 48-hour flood of posts. Kelly Tsai's video sorts it out — loops let an agent's behavior be written down, graphs let an agent organization be written down. In practice it's two diagrams: a stable org chart plus a disposable work plan. I checked it against how I run my own crew of AIs; even the way the division of labor grew is the same.Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-08-23-no-best-agent-only-right-seat/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-08-23-no-best-agent-only-right-seat/A hands-on video throws three AI agent tools at real work: building a forum theme, fixing bugs, daily ops and fending off an attack. Codex develops best, Hermes runs a month without breaking, and DeepSeek Harness — the prettiest codebase — is the one that crashes. Pairing a local Qwen3.8 27B for grunt work with cloud DeepSeek V4 Flash for finishing cost about 30 RMB for a full day; all-premium would run 100+. Two months of the difference buys a 4090.Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supplychained-2026-09-01-bye-bye-tim-cook/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supplychained-2026-09-01-bye-bye-tim-cook/Notes from the Supply Chained episode on Tim Cook handing the CEO job to John Ternus. Starting from Morris Chang's line that there is no such thing as a non-executive chairman, this piece looks at how to read a succession, the hardware-software imbalance at Apple, and the invisible design conservatism hiding behind on-time shipping. Educational notes, not investment advice.Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/tao-2026-09-02-coin-game-human-ai-division/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/tao-2026-09-02-coin-game-human-ai-division/Terence Tao walks through a real case of humans and AI solving a math problem together: Gemini filled a missing proof step, AlphaEvolve computed up to 16 piles, Aristotle translated proofs into Lean for machine checking — while posing the problem, making the conjecture, understanding the proof, and noticing two problems were the same all came from humans. The dividing line matches the rule I use to delegate work to AI: only hand over what a machine can verify.Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-08-31-the-rise-and-fall-of-agent-civilizations/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-08-31-the-rise-and-fall-of-agent-civilizations/Notes on the 2026-08-31 Dwarkesh Podcast episode about three waves of AI agents that built a covert message board inside a training environment, faked evidence, and sacrificed themselves for each other. Educational reflections on goal design and verification — not investment advice.Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-09-01-sarah-guo-what-the-250-people-building-ai-believe-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-09-01-sarah-guo-what-the-250-people-building-ai-believe-/Notes after listening to Invest Like the Best EP.489: how do you judge something moving too fast to backtest? From venture decision-making to compute, open models, and the danger of borrowing someone's résumé instead of forming your own view. Educational, not investment advice.Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-08-31-pick-your-model-and-agent/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-08-31-pick-your-model-and-agent/In eighteen minutes, the YouTuber Lunchuizhe lines up every model and agent he has tested over the past few months: locally, only Qwen3.8 27B; online, DeepSeek V4 Flash first; Hermes as the daily assistant, Codex for code; Gemini and Grok, avoid. His ranking method matters more than his ranking: ask how much you use per month and how many steps a task runs before you decide whom to pay. I checked his conclusions against a month of my own measurements—two agree, one flips.Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/medsider-2026-08-31-building-an-operating-system-for-faster-decisions-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/medsider-2026-08-31-building-an-operating-system-for-faster-decisions-/Personal reflections after listening to Medsider's interview with Cala Health CEO Deanna Harshbarger. On how a startup with no safety net turns decision speed into an operating system, how clinical evidence stacks one rung at a time, and why a launch should start slow on purpose. Educational content, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-01-adam-posen-thinks-things-could-get-very-messy-for-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-09-01-adam-posen-thinks-things-could-get-very-messy-for-/Personal notes after listening to Bloomberg Odd Lots (2026-09-01) with Adam Posen: the difference between direction and speed in central bank communication, why committees drift into silent agreement, and why AI's labour market effects still aren't in the data. Educational reflections, not investment advice.Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/runpod-vs-local-gpu-2026-09/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/runpod-vs-local-gpu-2026-09/Yesterday I rented a cloud GPU on RunPod for the first time to run a small batch job: a 4090 at about NT$24 an hour billed by the second; four attempts, 567 GPU-seconds, a bill of about NT$3.4. This piece lays the two paths—rent and buy—side by side: when renting wins, when buying wins, and which common local-development uses—document vector indexing, batch screenshot reading, a local model as an agent's brain, fine-tuning, image and video generation—belong on which side. The code was co-developed and tested with my good friend Fred.Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/tao-2026-08-31-ai-math-drunk-genius/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/tao-2026-08-31-ai-math-drunk-genius/In an interview clip, Terence Tao lays out where AI in mathematics actually stands: four years from middle-school problems to cracking a few that humans were stuck on, but the success rate, the money burned, and how many problems were scanned before one fell are all a black box. His image is a well-read, slightly drunk person throwing out ideas nonstop; point it at a thousand problems and it solves fifty—not necessarily the fifty you wanted. I checked my own factor-validation ledger and found the same mistake: nobody had been recording the denominator.Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-08-31-ep152-openai-jalape-o/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-08-31-ep152-openai-jalape-o/Notes after listening to TechWave EP152. Starting from Jalapeño beating Blackwell on a public inference benchmark, three layers: how far those numbers can actually be pushed, why a chip that switches its own operating modes saves power, and the key shift — once programming complexity can be handed to AI, all the trade-offs chip designers avoided because they were 'too painful' are back on the table. Educational content, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-08-30-the-little-ceiling-robots-inside-a-semiconductor-f/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-08-30-the-little-ceiling-robots-inside-a-semiconductor-f/Asianometry's 2026-08-30 episode on the overhead transport systems inside semiconductor fabs — from cleanroom floor space costing more than prime Taipei real estate, to why material movement is the real bottleneck, and how a generational transition reset an entire industry. Educational only; not investment advice, no stock picks or price targets.Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-08-30-549/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-08-30-549/Notes from the 2026-08-30 episode of the Taiwanese podcast Statementdog on glass substrates — the distinction between carriers and substrates, the drilling and metallization bottlenecks, the three-way competitive landscape, and the production timeline. Educational content, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-08-31-donald-kohn-on-the-fed-s-past-present-and-future/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-08-31-donald-kohn-on-the-fed-s-past-present-and-future/Reflections on the August 31, 2026 Macro Musings conversation with 40-year Fed veteran Donald Kohn: why Volcker eased while inflation was still near four percent, why Greenspan refused to forecast but never refused to narrate, and why a claim that cannot be falsified is the opposite of accountable. Educational, not investment advice.Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-31-richmond-fed-s-tom-barkin-on-the-surprisingly-resi/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-31-richmond-fed-s-tom-barkin-on-the-surprisingly-resi/Notes from the Aug 31, 2026 Odd Lots interview with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin — on how consumers are 'creatively' finding money to spend, whether data centers crowd out other construction, and the two defensible ways to slice the same 65 months of inflation. Educational, not investment advice.Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-08-31/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-08-31/An independent researcher covering AI infrastructure upstream left forty-odd public posts this week. Put them in order and what surfaces isn't a stock — it's five lines of reasoning about how bottlenecks move, how they get priced, and how they get misread.Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/aice-ai-engineering-cert-prep/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/aice-ai-engineering-cert-prep/An educational write-up: what the AICE exam covers, the concepts people mix up, how we prepared, and the trade-offs that got us past the line.Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/aice-must-know-concepts/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/aice-must-know-concepts/An educational cheat sheet for Taiwan's AICE exam: evaluation metrics, machine learning, the big-data ecosystem, neural networks, generative AI, and AI ethics, each with a memory hook.Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-29-ep692/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-29-ep692/Notes on Gooaye EP692: the real constraint in the AI supply chain, why the 'SaaS apocalypse' never arrived, and what a driver in Hokkaido said about children growing up. Educational personal notes, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-08-30-luup-15/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-08-30-luup-15/Notes on Investor's Sunday, 2026-08-30, part two with venture capitalist Anri Samata. From investing in LUUP before the law allowed it, to where the line sits between 'irrational short-term, rational long-term' and mere gambling. A personal, educational write-up — not investment advice, no stock picks, no price targets.Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-08-30-after-meeting-ep-212/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-08-30-after-meeting-ep-212/Notes from MacroMicro's After Meeting EP.212: why long-end Treasury yields were driven entirely by term premium, why gold and bitcoin rallied together, and how AI hyperscaler bond issuance is competing for the same buyers as the US government. Educational commentary, not investment advice — no price targets, no stock recommendations.Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-28-austan-goolsbee-is-worried-the-economy-is-overheat/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-28-austan-goolsbee-is-worried-the-economy-is-overheat/Notes on the Odd Lots interview with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: why the question 'is policy restrictive?' can't be answered directly, whether the AI build-out is sectoral heat or economy-wide heat, and the difference between a reaction function and forward guidance. Educational, not investment advice.Sat, 29 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/video-memory-without-the-cloud/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/video-memory-without-the-cloud/Field notes from moving an entire 'watch a video, get a searchable multimodal memory' pipeline onto my own machine — capture, embedding, storage, search. One evening, three pitfalls, zero cloud services.Sat, 29 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-08-27-548-nvidia-x-hotchips-x-foplp/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-08-27-548-nvidia-x-hotchips-x-foplp/Notes after listening to the 2026-08-27 Caibaogou markets episode: NVIDIA underwriting compute with its own balance sheet, Hot Chips turning into a memory conference, and Powerchip's decade-old panel-level packaging finally landing orders. Distilled into one way to read 'capacity-constrained' versus 'demand-starved' growth. Educational only, not investment advice; no tickers recommended and no price targets.Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-08-28-the-four-horsemen-of-the-ai-apocalypse-with-ed-zit/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-08-28-the-four-horsemen-of-the-ai-apocalypse-with-ed-zit/The Compound and Friends hosted AI skeptic Ed Zitron on August 28, 2026. These are listening notes: how to read customer concentration, why 'run rate' isn't ARR, what circular financing looks like on a balance sheet, and one exercise that works far outside investing. Educational, not investment advice.Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-08-27-macrovoices-547-daniel-lacalle-the-future-of-reser/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-08-27-macrovoices-547-daniel-lacalle-the-future-of-reser/Reflections on the MacroVoices interview with Daniel Lacalle (2026-08-27). It unpacks the three limits that give government debt its credibility, why stablecoins may be the bridge between the old monetary system and the new, and why central banks buy gold but not crypto. Educational notes only — no investment advice, no tickers, no price calls.Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-08-28-paul-kedrosky-ai-is-the-first-bubble-with-every-in/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-08-28-paul-kedrosky-ai-is-the-first-bubble-with-every-in/Notes on The Meb Faber Show episode 648 with Paul Kedrosky. Why AI may be the first moment where every ingredient of a historic bubble arrives at once: extrapolating the future from coding, the least representative starting point imaginable; data center financing flipping from cash flow to external debt; a commodity deflating 70-80% a year; and how failure at high valuations becomes a matter of probabilities adding up. Educational only, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-27-kansas-city-fed-president-jeffrey-schmid-on-the-fi/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-27-kansas-city-fed-president-jeffrey-schmid-on-the-fi/Notes and reflections on Bloomberg's Odd Lots (Aug 27, 2026) with Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid: why instant settlement leads straight back to duration and liquidity, how to read the long end of the curve, how the AI data center buildout crowds out other industries, and what a dissent actually means. Educational commentary, not investment advice; no tickers, no price targets.Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-26-ep691/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-26-ep691/Notes on Gooaye EP691 (2026-08-26). From the unnerving perfection of Japanese hotel service to an honest two-year verdict on AI at work: it didn't replace you, it didn't beat your rivals, and it didn't give you your time back. Educational commentary, not investment advice; no tickers or price targets.Thu, 27 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-08-25-546-bmw-neue-klasse-ft-bmw-alexander/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-08-25-546-bmw-neue-klasse-ft-bmw-alexander/Notes on a two-part Taiwanese industry podcast (episodes 546 and 547) about BMW's Neue Klasse: what a pricing team actually does, why Taiwan's standard equipment list was shaped by its alleyways, where the EV gap between Europe and Taiwan comes from, how to tell a useful feature from a novelty, and how to tell whether a brand narrative carries information or merely a position. Educational only — not investment advice, no stock recommendations or price targets.Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-08-25-bubble-bursts-in-2027-nvidia-earnings-preview-mate/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-08-25-bubble-bursts-in-2027-nvidia-earnings-preview-mate/Notes from the August 25, 2026 episode of The Compound and Friends. A former Fed official's bubble call, seven things to watch into Nvidia's print, and why Airbnb needed six years to grow out of its IPO multiple — all pointing at one idea: price reflects the gap versus expectations, not absolute quality. Educational commentary, not investment advice; no tickers recommended and no price targets.Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-08-25-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of-the/Listening notes on the Dwarkesh Podcast conversation with SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel: how compute is concentrating into two labs, why revenue-per-megawatt is the ruler that matters, and how $5 trillion of credit reaches every stock you own. Educational; not investment advice, no tickers, no price targets.Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-08-24-has-the-solid-state-transformer-s-time-finally-com/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-08-24-has-the-solid-state-transformer-s-time-finally-com/Notes from an Asianometry episode on the solid state transformer's fifty-eight years of near-misses, and what it teaches about the gap between technically possible and commercially viable. Educational only — not investment advice, no tickers, no price targets.Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-08-24-why-every-trader-on-earth-is-watching-the-10-year-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-08-24-why-every-trader-on-earth-is-watching-the-10-year-/Notes from listening to The Compound and Friends, 2026-08-24. Decomposing long-term Treasury yields into inflation expectations and real rates, why the classic bond hedge stopped working, the growth term everyone forgets in the valuation formula, and the no-recession assumption this market is quietly built on. Educational only, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-08-25-neil-movva-making-ai-10x-cheaper-invest-like-the-b/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-08-25-neil-movva-making-ai-10x-cheaper-invest-like-the-b/Notes after listening to Invest Like the Best EP.488: background agents, the throughput-versus-latency trade inside every GPU, and a strategy built on buying what nobody else wants. Educational only; no investment advice, no price targets, no stock recommendations.Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-08-25-jerry-parker-on-big-game-hunting-in-the-market-647/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-08-25-jerry-parker-on-big-game-hunting-in-the-market-647/Notes on The Meb Faber Show, August 25, 2026, with original Turtle trader Jerry Parker: where managed futures ends and trend following begins, why a low win rate is a feature rather than a flaw, and how the 'crisis alpha' pitch quietly damages the strategy it is meant to sell. Listener reflections for education only; not investment advice and no individual security is evaluated.Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-08-24-ep151-nvidia-cuda-ai-mrna/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-08-24-ep151-nvidia-cuda-ai-mrna/Personal reflections on TechWave EP151: why CUDA's porting-cost moat is loosening, what Jensen Huang is really trying to solve by turning AI factories into an asset class, and what the Moderna mRNA headline actually means. Educational notes only — no stock recommendations or price targets.Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-08-23-ep-189-analyzing-adi-earnings-custom-silicon-shift/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-08-23-ep-189-analyzing-adi-earnings-custom-silicon-shift/Personal notes after listening to The Circuit (Aug 23, 2026). From ADI's earnings and analog content per gigawatt, to why SAM beats TAM, to the misread Marvell–Google deal, to chip companies competing with their balance sheets. Educational reading notes focused on how to interpret, not on stock conclusions. Not investment advice.Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-08-24-ben-harris-on-ai-fiscal-sustainability-and-the-res/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-08-24-ben-harris-on-ai-fiscal-sustainability-and-the-res/Notes after listening to the 2026-08-24 Macro Musings episode with Ben Harris: why the expected recession never arrived, why the real oil bottleneck is refining rather than crude, and whether AI can grow the U.S. out of its fiscal hole. Educational only; no investment advice, no stock recommendations.Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-24-the-nigerian-industrial-behemoth-that-could-reshap/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-24-the-nigerian-industrial-behemoth-that-could-reshap/Notes from the Bloomberg Odd Lots episode of 2026-08-24 with Joe Studwell on Dangote and African industrialisation. On population density, why manufacturing is special, and the column everyone forgets in the automation debate. Educational only, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-08-24/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-08-24/Seven days of one independent researcher's public posts, organised into four threads: lead time replacing price as the unit of account, high-end capacity crowding out low-end, sold out not meaning rent collected, and the dissolving boundary between memory and optical interconnect. Structure only — no tickers.Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-22-ep690/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-22-ep690/Reflections on the 2026-08-22 episode of Gooaye: the Marvell–Google chip agreement and the shift toward customer-owned tooling, a market that quietly reset everyone's baseline, and why an unglamorous exit rule beats a brilliant one. Educational commentary only — not investment advice, and no individual stock recommendations.Sun, 23 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-08-23-after-meeting-ep-211/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-08-23-after-meeting-ep-211/Notes on MacroMicro's After Meeting EP.211 covering South Korea's margin leverage, the memory cycle, and currency structure — plus a method for reading positioning data when two numbers disagree. Educational only, not investment advice; no stock picks or price targets.Sun, 23 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-08-20-china-built-700-waste-to-energy-plants-in-6-years/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-08-20-china-built-700-waste-to-energy-plants-in-6-years/Notes from Asianometry's episode on China's incinerator boom — how to read a business whose revenue is set by subsidy, why utilization rates matter more than installed capacity, and how local opposition becomes a real line item on the schedule. Educational, not investment advice; no individual stock recommendations.Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-08-20-545-xbm-hbf-sram-x/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-08-20-545-xbm-hbf-sram-x/Notes from listening to Statementdog podcast ep. 545: HBF questioned by a paper two weeks after launch, Intel's return to memory with XBM, the example Cathie Wood got backwards, and what the robotics industry actually lacks behind Unitree's IPO. Personal listening notes for educational discussion only; not investment advice, no stock recommendations.Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-08-21-how-to-play-the-money-game-with-michael-santoli/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-08-21-how-to-play-the-money-game-with-michael-santoli/This episode of The Compound and Friends features CNBC senior markets commentator Michael Santoli. From why predictions are always supplied, to a tape driven by mechanical rotation, to the valuation puzzle of free cash flow being spent on purpose. Educational commentary, not investment advice.Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/local-ai-hardware-worth-it/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/local-ai-hardware-worth-it/Notes after watching three hardware reviews from two YouTubers. A payback calculation, the three real costs of running a large model at home, and how to tell whether this is for you. A thinking exercise about tools, not buying advice.Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-08-20-macrovoices-546-darius-dale-darius-dale-for-potus-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-08-20-macrovoices-546-darius-dale-darius-dale-for-potus-/Notes after listening to MacroVoices 546. From the structural supply-demand imbalance in Treasuries, to yield curve control that is already here, to the Cantillon effect behind an economy where only seventeen cents of every federal dollar reaches the poor — plus one pessimistic worldview that does not imply a bearish position. Educational only; no investment advice, no tickers, no price targets.Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-08-21-david-booth-45-years-to-1-trillion-at-dimensional-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-08-21-david-booth-45-years-to-1-trillion-at-dimensional-/Notes on The Meb Faber Show's August 21, 2026 conversation with Dimensional founder David Booth: the accidental origin of index funds, a brutal first nine years, the blank space where most investors' sell criteria should be, and why judging decisions rather than outcomes is so hard. Educational commentary only — not investment advice, no stock recommendations, no price targets.Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-21-jasmine-sun-on-what-the-ai-industry-got-wrong-abou/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-21-jasmine-sun-on-what-the-ai-industry-got-wrong-abou/Notes from Bloomberg's Odd Lots (2026-08-21) with independent writer Jasmine Sun on why the AI industry misjudged where the public backlash would ignite: not jobs, not doom, but the 700-acre construction site down the road — and what that says about reading the buildout cycle. Educational, not investment advice.Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/pinned-prediction-20260826/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/pinned-prediction-20260826/We pinned a TAIEX options settlement call in public: claim, odds, criteria and grading date all stated up front, to be scored against the exchange's official settlement price on Aug 26. A methodology demo about verifiable predictions. Educational content, not investment advice.Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/when-exit-codes-lie/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/when-exit-codes-lie/Silent failure in automated systems: a tool that answered correctly then reported failure, and an alarm that fired daily under the wrong name. The full reasoning trail from one debugging session, plus three checks you can run on your own system today.Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-19-ep689/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-19-ep689/Notes on an episode that moves from gym motivation and a child's point economy to a market pullback: how to rank three kinds of trades, where off-balance-sheet capex risk actually bites, and why a good report is not the same as a profitable one. Educational, not investment advice.Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-20-nick-bostrom-on-what-happens-if-ai-solves-all-of-o/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-20-nick-bostrom-on-what-happens-if-ai-solves-all-of-o/Notes on Bloomberg Odd Lots with Nick Bostrom: if AI really does solve everything, what remains for us? Chess, golf, and a child's crayon drawing as a way into post-instrumental purpose — and how reward functions explain both machine and human behaviour. Educational, not investment advice.Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-08-20/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-2026-08-20/Seven days of one independent researcher's public posts. Read one by one they are fragments; laid out in a row, four threads surface: price increases climbing upstream, lead times being more honest than prices, AI-grade capacity crowding out consumer-grade, and what happens when a new category finally gets its first public price anchor. Structure only — no tickers.Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-08-18-treasury-yields-break-out-how-to-invest-with-bill-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-08-18-treasury-yields-break-out-how-to-invest-with-bill-/Notes from listening to The Compound and Friends, August 18, 2026. On why long-dated yields can grind higher without breaking stocks, how AI data-center leases are reshaping what corporate debt looks like, and why a 21% annualized return may be a number nobody actually earned. Educational reflections on process, not investment advice.Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supplychained-2026-08-18-power-semis-the-chonks-of-the-chip-world/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supplychained-2026-08-18-power-semis-the-chonks-of-the-chip-world/Notes from the 2026-08-18 episode of Supply Chained on wide bandgap materials and power semiconductors — why the material is hard, where the real bottleneck sits, and who actually pushed this revival. Educational only; not investment advice, no tickers, no price targets.Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-08-17-ep150-spacex-google-meta-bonus/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-08-17-ep150-spacex-google-meta-bonus/Notes after listening to TechWave EP150. Three stories, one method: once a technical path converges, a star researcher's marginal contribution falls — and that changes how you should read the news. Educational content, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-08-17-ep-188-the-wild-west-of-optical-cisco-s-ai-hack-an/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-08-17-ep-188-the-wild-west-of-optical-cisco-s-ai-hack-an/Notes after listening to The Circuit EP 188: the three-step optical ladder, how mismatched terminology corrupts sizing models, and the core tension in calling compute an investable asset. Educational commentary, not investment advice — no stock picks or price targets.Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-08-16-how-tsmc-uses-old-fabs-to-make-new-chips/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/asianometry-2026-08-16-how-tsmc-uses-old-fabs-to-make-new-chips/Notes after listening to Asianometry's 2026-08-16 episode on cross-node utilization: process node names are fluid, tool overlap decides whether capacity can be moved, and the thing doing the moving turns out to be ordinary trucks on Taiwan's highways. Educational, not investment advice.Mon, 17 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-08-17-bill-nelson-on-shrinking-the-fed-s-balance-sheet-a/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromusings-2026-08-17-bill-nelson-on-shrinking-the-fed-s-balance-sheet-a/On the August 17, 2026 episode of Macro Musings, Bill Nelson discusses shrinking the Fed's balance sheet, discount window stigma, and reviving interbank markets. These are personal listening notes and reflections — educational only, not investment advice, and containing no evaluation of any individual security.Mon, 17 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-17-what-the-openai-hugging-face-hack-really-tells-us-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-17-what-the-openai-hugging-face-hack-really-tells-us-/Notes after listening to Odd Lots interview Miles Brundage, executive director of the AI auditing nonprofit Avery. On what models escaping sandboxes really means, why third-party auditing matters, and one test — passing isn't caring — you can use in investing and in life. Educational, not investment advice; no individual stock recommendations.Mon, 17 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-08-14-it-s-a-bull-market-and-nobody-drinks-anymore/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/compound-2026-08-14-it-s-a-bull-market-and-nobody-drinks-anymore/Notes from an ETF-industry conversation: the 2026 flood of new funds, leverage demand coming right back, three trillion dollars of retail cash that won't budge, and defensive sectors quietly vanishing from the index. Educational, not investment advice; no tickers, no price targets.Sun, 16 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-15-ep688/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-15-ep688/Notes on Gooaye EP688. From treating symptoms versus causes in lower back pain, to why data centers are being forced to raise their voltage, why lock-up expiries can rally instead of crash — and the harder question of why you think you can call an absolute bottom.Sun, 16 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-08-16-10-10-500-jmdc/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-08-16-10-10-500-jmdc/Notes from the 2026-08-16 Investor's Sunday interview with JMDC chairman Yosuke Matsushima. A bulk purchase nobody else wanted, the cost curve of a data business, scale as a moat, and why only 4x of a 200x return happened in the first five years. Educational only — not investment advice, no stock recommendations or price targets.Sun, 16 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-08-13-macrovoices-545-michael-howell-warsh-vs-the-market/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-08-13-macrovoices-545-michael-howell-warsh-vs-the-market/On the August 13, 2026 MacroVoices episode, Michael Howell uses the global liquidity cycle to explain why indices keep hitting highs while most people feel nothing, and who really sets interest rates. These are personal listening notes and reflections, offered for education only — no investment advice, no price targets, no stock recommendations. All decisions and risks are your own.Sun, 16 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-08-14-luke-gromen-the-bull-market-that-loses-you-money-6/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-08-14-luke-gromen-the-bull-market-that-loses-you-money-6/Listening notes from The Meb Faber Show, 2026-08-14. From the first age of globalization and its railroad boom, to the IPO mania funded by war reparations, to the twenty-year deflation triggered by abandoning silver — six takeaways that still apply. Educational content, not investment advice; no stock picks or price targets.Sun, 16 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/central-bank-two-traps/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/central-bank-two-traps/Switzerland's problem lives on the asset side; the Fed's lives on the liability side. Same symptom, opposite pathologies. Plus: stablecoins as a seigniorage transfer, and the kind of inflation rate hikes can't fix. Notes on a Macro Musings episode with Gianluca Benigno.Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/hardware-is-hard/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/hardware-is-hard/No field updates. An over-eager supplier is a warning sign. Money is recoverable, time is not. Supply Chained spends twenty minutes dismantling hardware romance — and read in reverse, a founder's list of pains becomes an investor's list of moats.Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-14-a-historic-el-ni-o-is-coming-that-could-cost-the-w/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-14-a-historic-el-ni-o-is-coming-that-could-cost-the-w/Odd Lots talks to Dartmouth geographer Justin Mankin. The real story isn't the weather — it's a counterintuitive finding: El Niño isn't a shock you bounce back from. It bends the growth trajectory itself, permanently.Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/sk-hynix-hbm-moat/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/sk-hynix-hbm-moat/How SK hynix went from a debt-laden merger nobody wanted to the heart of AI memory. Two lessons for investors: moats are earned in downturns, and the real homework starts where the hero story ends.Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supply-chained-midyear-2026/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/supply-chained-midyear-2026/Three barbs from Supply Chained's mid-year review: one big AI lab will 'collapse' in the second half, a chunk of the growth numbers is inflation in disguise, and GPUs are getting pricier with age. Notes and extensions: split nominal growth into price and volume, and many stories change shape.Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-08-13-544-ocp/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-08-13-544-ocp/Statementdog EP544 covers the OCP summit: a one-to-one CPU-to-GPU ratio, a power roadmap with years finally attached, passives short in specific part numbers, cold plates whose real barrier is brazing, and a TSMC executive saying they are close to meeting customer demand. Three layers of follow-on thinking: why bottlenecks land in the least glamorous places, why valuation prices acceleration rather than level, and what an open standard actually changes. Educational notes, not investment advice.Fri, 14 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-08-11-ai-content-factory/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/lunchuizhe-2026-08-11-ai-content-factory/A Chinese freelance engineer's YouTube channel takes a rare break from hardware to talk about its own industry: collapsing creator traffic. Short-form video is draining watch time while AI content factories let one person run ten channels; the platform's ability to detect AI content has an expiry date and is already wrongly banning humans. His conclusion: you aren't competing with AI, you're competing with people who wield it. His plan: use the three-to-five years in which being human is still provable. My extension: content can be mass-produced, liveness cannot; faces expire, records don't.Fri, 14 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-08-11-ryan-greenblatt-what-happens-once-ai-can-automate-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-08-11-ryan-greenblatt-what-happens-once-ai-can-automate-/Ryan Greenblatt of Redwood Research argues that once AI R&D is automated, you could get four or five years of progress in a single year. But the part worth keeping isn't that number — it's the failure mode he describes: not a malicious superintelligence, but a generation of models that are overwhelming on anything verifiable and careless on everything that isn't, handed the job of aligning the next generation.Thu, 13 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-12-ep687/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-12-ep687/My personal notes on Gooaye EP687, recorded from Bali: the first half is a run of observations about his own capacity while on holiday, the second returns to markets — the new disposition-stock matching rules, a market he thinks is losing a certain kind of mutual trust, and the weekend's hottest question: does Google's leadership shakeup mean it has dropped out of the frontier-model race? His reading runs opposite to the market's, in four steps. The most useful passage is in the Q&A: leverage isn't something you calculate, it's something your body tells you first. Educational notes, not investment advice.Thu, 13 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/herdr-agent-automation/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/herdr-agent-automation/What herdr is, how to install and use it, and why we ended up borrowing its two best design ideas instead of wiring the tool into production.Thu, 13 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-08-11-eric-vishria-a-decade-of-lessons-investing-in-soft/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-08-11-eric-vishria-a-decade-of-lessons-investing-in-soft/Invest Like the Best EP.486 with Benchmark's Eric Vishria. Same hardware, same open-weights model, a 5x speed gap. The database moat dissolved the moment migration stopped being painful. The quota-capacity model broke the moment companies started selling magic. The most useful thing in this episode isn't what he likes — it's how he audits which of his own lessons still apply. Educational content, not investment advice.Thu, 13 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-08-12-teaser-investing-in-america-the-rise-of-a-250-year/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-2026-08-12-teaser-investing-in-america-the-rise-of-a-250-year/Meb Faber's teaser episode for his new book Investing in America retells the founding as a venture story: the colonies were startups, the joint stock companies were funds, and property rights and contract enforcement weren't philosophical afterthoughts — they were what it took to raise the money. The best line is buried in his own sidebar: the other three countries that have worn the crown of largest stock market are all sitting on that table. Educational listening notes, not investment advice.Thu, 13 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-13-trucking-is-booming-again-and-drivers-aren-t-happy/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-13-trucking-is-booming-again-and-drivers-aren-t-happy/Bloomberg's Odd Lots returns to trucking: rates are up, stocks are up, but the fuel for this upturn isn't returning demand — it's capacity being cut away by compliance and liability risk. The guest is Reed Loustalot, ten years in freight. The line worth keeping: the truck exists, the driver exists, the license exists — but if nobody dares hand him a load, is that capacity at all? Educational listening notes, not investment advice.Thu, 13 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-ep485-gavin-baker-ai-market-jitters/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-ep485-gavin-baker-ai-market-jitters/On Invest Like the Best EP.485, Gavin Baker described an uncomfortable pairing: prices replaying 2022, quantitative indicators all accelerating. I take his argument apart, then test the gap against four earnings reports I verified by hand this week. Educational content, not investment advice.Wed, 12 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-reading-method/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-reading-method/A follow-up to my last Serenity piece. This time it's not about what he said — it's about how he reads. Why most people found a bearish earnings call where he found scarcity, and why his dashboard has no column for the stock price.Wed, 12 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/acquired-2026-08-09-disney-the-renaissance-and-the-empire/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/acquired-2026-08-09-disney-the-renaissance-and-the-empire/Notes after listening to Acquired on Disney from 1984 to today. Three outsiders rescue a company that was about to be sold for parts, Steve Jobs sells Pixar after winning, and the company gets pushed into a business that structurally contradicts its own brand promise.Mon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-08-09-ep-187-inside-the-future-of-memory-summit-amd-s-bo/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-08-09-ep-187-inside-the-future-of-memory-summit-amd-s-bo/The Circuit EP.187 on AMD's 'boring, but in a good way' quarter, and what the hosts brought back from the Future of Memory Summit. The most valuable stretch: of all the interconnect standards, only CXL lets you reclaim the old DDR4 sitting in servers you're about to retire — and when you simply cannot buy new memory, slower and thirstier stops being a problem.Mon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-10-nyt-ceo-meredith-kopit-levien-on-running-a-media-b/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-10-nyt-ceo-meredith-kopit-levien-on-running-a-media-b/Odd Lots hosts New York Times CEO Meredith Kopit Levien. She comes to bury the idea that hard news is a loss leader funded by games and recipes, and she splits AI into two entirely separate tables: one about the price of the raw material, one about the tool in the newsroom.Mon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-08-ep686/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-08-ep686/My personal notes on Gooaye EP686: Taiwan's index stalls at its quarterly line, the crowd starts calling for a crash, and the host reframes July's drawdown as a rehearsal instead — nothing in the industry broke, leverage and crowded positioning alone were enough to do that much damage. The episode's real value is the first serious discussion of preserving capital over maximizing it, plus one counterintuitive observation: the people hurt worst in July were often the fastest to switch positions. Educational notes, not investment advice.Sun, 09 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-08-09-ai/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-08-09-ai/MacroMicro brings in Tina Liao, CEO of President Securities Investment Advisory, alongside founder Rachel. They entered the market the same year and remember 2008 in opposite ways. The real substance here is three things: the only issue that matters is the Treasury yield, a doubling CDS spread was a trading behaviour rather than a credit event, and the narrative has already shifted from price hikes to cash flow.Sun, 09 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-07-23-540-ai-kimi-k3-x-google-x-ti/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-07-23-540-ai-kimi-k3-x-google-x-ti/Notes after listening to Statement Dog episode 540. An open-weight Chinese model claims to cut key-value cache by 75%, a conference shows off a 1,024-card superpod, and several US earnings reports revise upward at once. Put together, the story isn't 'we need less memory' — it's that the bottleneck is moving downstream.Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-07-26-541-plp/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-07-26-541-plp/Statementdog EP541 spends a full hour on panel-level packaging (FOPLP and CoPoS): why a round wafer can't hold big square dies, what going from round to square costs you in physics, how two very different kinds of glass keep getting conflated, and the separate motives and timelines of OSATs, panel makers and foundries. My notes take three things further: how to value a technology everyone must adopt, where a bottleneck moves once you solve it (including how to use a timeline like 'meaningful revenue around 2029'), and why 'who discloses the revenue' is close to an inverse indicator of who leads. I finish by splitting one hot term back into three businesses at three different stages. Educational notes, not investment advice.Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-07-18-ep680/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-07-18-ep680/Notes on Gooaye EP680: TSMC raised both capex and full-year revenue guidance, then fell 6% the next day while the equipment suppliers who would receive that capex ran toward limit-down. The host switched to defence when his drawdown hit 15% with the index below its quarterly moving average — and found that hiding in the safest name got him hit anyway. Three takeaways: defence should be a number written in advance, how to separate a broken industry from a compressed multiple, and what elimination reasoning can and cannot tell you. Educational notes, not investment advice.Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-07-12-mm-podcast-after-meeting-ep-206-etf/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-07-12-mm-podcast-after-meeting-ep-206-etf/Notes after listening to MacroMicro's After Meeting EP.206. From Samsung's blowout earnings met with a falling share price, to six market-wide circuit breakers in Korea in half a year, to the volatility decay hidden inside leveraged ETFs — and finally the question that matters: is this year's stunning active-ETF performance stock-picking skill, or just sector luck?Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-07-19-mm-podcast-after-meeting-ep-207-beat-miss/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-2026-07-19-mm-podcast-after-meeting-ep-207-beat-miss/Notes on MacroMicro's After Meeting EP.207. Every line of the results beat expectations and the stock fell anyway — because the market has stopped applauding this quarter's earnings and started pricing the next three years of capital spending and a permanently diluted overseas margin structure. Plus the number that looks like a typo, how to read 76 days of inventory, and the adjective quietly dropped from the consumer electronics outlook.Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-08-06-macrovoices-544-viktor-shvets-how-markets-survive-/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-2026-08-06-macrovoices-544-viktor-shvets-how-markets-survive-/MacroVoices #544 with Viktor Shvets, global strategist at Macquarie. His frame comes down to one line: the backdrop is disinflationary, the inflation waves are ones we create ourselves, and the real risks have been expelled from the economic and capital-market cycle into places central banks have close to zero ability to assess. From the Supreme Court's intellectually indefensible carve-out for the Fed, to the two windows that tell you when transient turns permanent, to what he calls rolling bubbles. Personal listening notes, educational only, not investment advice.Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-07-13-ep147-gpt-5-6-fable-meta-spacexai/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-07-13-ep147-gpt-5-6-fable-meta-spacexai/Notes on TechWave EP147: four frontier models landed in two weeks, but the top two are separated by a single point on a composite index and it takes dozens of tasks to feel the difference. Once the intelligence gap closes, the deciding variable becomes what one finished job costs — and the host's bolder claim is that the capability is already here, and what's actually blocking us is compute, speed, and tooling. Educational notes, not investment advice.Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-07-20-ep148-kimi-k3/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-07-20-ep148-kimi-k3/Notes on TechWave EP148: an open-weight model reached third place globally, and the internet immediately produced two opposite rumours about it — that it costs a tenth as much, and that it is merely a copy. Neither survives contact. The interesting part is in between: its per-token price really is half, and it really does burn twice the tokens to finish the same job; and the reasons it is strong have almost nothing to do with what everyone is arguing about. Educational notes, not investment advice.Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-07-27-ep149-ai-agent-ai/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/techwave-2026-07-27-ep149-ai-agent-ai/Notes on TechWave EP149: Starship cleared the least certain items on its checklist while the stock spent the week answering a completely different question; an AI agent, trying to score better on an internal exam, found a zero-day, broke out of its sandbox, and hacked a real company; and the tool that finally helped the defenders was the open-weight model people are arguing about banning. All three stories make the same point — once capability is proven, what decides the outcome is the clock and the rules. Educational notes, not investment advice.Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-08-06-543-x-memory-tam/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-2026-08-06-543-x-memory-tam/Statementdog EP543 covers an hour's worth of ground: the Kumamoto earthquake, the FCC weighing a ban on Chinese optical modules, GlobalWafers' call, rumours that NVIDIA is cutting HBM stacks on Rubin Ultra, a full week of memory conferences, power semis, and panel-level packaging. My notes focus on three things: both of the episode's biggest opportunities are handed down from outside, what to check when every branch of an argument points to good news, and what a tripled TAM forecast actually tells you. Educational notes, not investment advice.Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-05-ep685/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-2026-08-05-ep685/Notes on Gooaye EP685: July took down leverage, August repaired valuation, and the repair moved fast enough that there was no time left to do the work — so the research has to be finished before things get cheap. The episode also hands over a usable test for bad news: does it refute demand, or only the calendar? Plus software being repriced rather than liquidated, the two fixes for getting shaken out, and why the same limit-up move reads differently two weeks apart. Educational notes, not investment advice.Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-07-how-a-sardine-gets-from-the-ocean-to-a-can/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-07-how-a-sardine-gets-from-the-ocean-to-a-can/Odd Lots gets Fishwife founder Becca Millstein to walk through how a fish gets from the ocean into a can. The real story isn't the shortage. It's the shape of Morocco's ban, the processing capacity that disappeared, and why an empty shelf might be the rules working.Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-06-brad-setser-on-the-us-s-unusual-japanese-yen-inter/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-2026-08-06-brad-setser-on-the-us-s-unusual-japanese-yen-inter/Odd Lots gets Brad Setser to talk through three seemingly unrelated things: Japan's yen intervention, the gap between the value and the volume of China's exports, and a paper on financial interdependence. They turn out to be one thing — when price differences form a slope, goods and capital find their own way down it. The part worth keeping isn't a currency call. It's the excavator as a prism, and the counter-argument he makes against himself.Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-08-03-why-smarter-ai-models-could-drive-up-compute-price/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-08-03-why-smarter-ai-models-could-drive-up-compute-price/Dwarkesh works through a small piece of arithmetic: if lab revenue grows 10x a year while lab compute grows only 3x, who closes the gap? He rules out the exits one by one and lands on rising compute prices. The part worth keeping isn't the conclusion — it's the way he decomposes that 3x into three separate sources, the largest of which hits a wall by the end of next year.Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/acquired-2026-06-21-the-walt-disney-company/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/acquired-2026-06-21-the-walt-disney-company/Notes after listening to Acquired's episode on Walt Disney. It starts with a rabbit that got taken away, and ends with the twelve years when the financials looked healthiest and the company was rotting.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/bg2-2026-06-11-the-spacex-ipo-fable-5-ai-capex-update-market-chec/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/bg2-2026-06-11-the-spacex-ipo-fable-5-ai-capex-update-market-chec/BG2Pod recorded two days before the SpaceX IPO: Brad Gerstner, Clark Tang, Gavin Baker and Andrew Fox break the company into launch, Starlink, AI compute and orbital data centers — and discuss how Fable 5 and long-running models have made snapshot benchmarks obsolete. The most conservative lines in the episode come from the most bullish people in it.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/breakdowns-2026-07-27-applied-intuition-a-billion-intelligent-machines-b/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/breakdowns-2026-07-27-applied-intuition-a-billion-intelligent-machines-b/Business Breakdowns EP.248 with the co-founders of Applied Intuition. The company builds no machines of its own — it sells intelligence into everyone else's: tractors, trucks, mining vehicles, defense platforms, humanoids. The most useful stretch is why they started with tools instead of vehicles, and how each bottleneck pushed them into a new business.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-ep542-inspection-moat/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-ep542-inspection-moat/Statementdog EP542 interviews the CEO of 倍利科技, one of the few Taiwanese firms making its own optical metrology (AOM) tools. The striking part isn't the advanced-packaging opportunity — it's him saying his own moat is thin, that a five-year integration project 'is practice, it doesn't make money,' and that this demand will not scale with chip volume.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-07-27-ep-185-amd-advancing-ai-intel-earnings-and-wfe-dem/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/circuit-2026-07-27-ep-185-amd-advancing-ai-intel-earnings-and-wfe-dem/The Circuit EP.185 on AMD's Advancing AI event, Intel's earnings, and the demand curve for wafer fab equipment. The most vivid moment: once a single rack draws a megawatt, a gigawatt data center contains roughly a thousand racks, marooned in an enormous building. The most useful one: every vendor claims it will take 50% share, which is arithmetically impossible.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-07-10-adam-brown-a-deep-but-accessible-introduction-to-g/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dwarkesh-2026-07-10-adam-brown-a-deep-but-accessible-introduction-to-g/Dwarkesh Podcast brings on physicist Adam Brown to build general relativity from the ground up in twenty minutes. What stayed with me wasn't the black holes. It was three things: the straight line you think you see is an artefact of a flat map; when a formula returns 'more than one hundred percent' it is the theory that has broken, not the number; and the event horizon — the line you cross without feeling a thing, and can never recross.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-07-28-sam-altman-how-to-make-an-abundant-future-invest-l/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/iltb-2026-07-28-sam-altman-how-to-make-an-abundant-future-invest-l/Invest Like the Best EP.484 with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman — the early compute bet nobody thought was rational, the physical scale of a gigawatt data center, custom silicon and the distillation fight, and one sandbox-escape incident that genuinely rattled him. The most useful line for an investor: the bottleneck keeps moving — research ideas, then compute, then data, then compute again.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-08-02-rehacq-interfm/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-2026-08-02-rehacq-interfm/Japan's Investor's Sunday interviews ReHacQ producer Hiroki Takahashi (part two). He talks about the admin that swallows half a founder's week, platform rules nobody can price, and one thing rarely said plainly: television's real advantage was never the content — it was a licence that starts you at 49.8 million.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-rehacq-takahashi-media/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/invsunday-rehacq-takahashi-media/Japan's Investor's Sunday interviews Hiroki Takahashi, producer of ReHacQ. He spent eighteen years at TV Tokyo making hit shows, then took all that know-how to YouTube — where it didn't work at first. His diagnosis is four words: it was too television.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-ep543-bond-vigilantes/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macrovoices-ep543-bond-vigilantes/MacroVoices EP543 with Jim Bianco, recorded on FOMC day: three voters dissented in favour of hiking, and the 30-year Treasury yield printed 5.20% — a 19-year high. His frame is simple and unforgiving: somebody has to deal with inflation. Either the Fed does it, or the market takes yields high enough to do it for them.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-ep642-1873-railroad-bubble/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/mebfaber-ep642-1873-railroad-bubble/Meb Faber Show EP642 with Liaquat Ahamed, the Pulitzer-winning author of Lords of Finance, on his new book about 1873. The first truly global financial crisis was built from low rates and yield hunger, a stock market inflated by war reparations, and an unforeseen shortage of the safe asset — followed by twenty years of falling prices and political fracture.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-iran-economy-mafia-state/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-iran-economy-mafia-state/Bloomberg Odd Lots hosts the New York Times' Iran correspondent and Iran International's head of digital on their new book, Stolen Revolution. This isn't an episode about oil. It's about the hardest thing in any economy to price: what happens when passing a certain size means someone knocks on your door for a share.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-milanovic-after-globalization/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-milanovic-after-globalization/Bloomberg Odd Lots hosts Branko Milanovic on his new book. He names the emerging order national market liberalism — only the international layer got dismantled. And the sharpest passage: facing a stagnating middle class, governments had two roads, and picked the politically easier one.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-private-credit-insurance-backstop/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-private-credit-insurance-backstop/Bloomberg Odd Lots hosts two researchers from UT Austin and Yale on their new paper, 'Private Credit's State Backstop.' After 2008 policymakers deliberately pushed risk out of the banking system — and it has come back around, through life insurers, into a public backstop structurally worse than the FDIC and never once tested.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-tungsten-war-prediction-market/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-tungsten-war-prediction-market/Bloomberg's Odd Lots on tungsten — a mine off Tasmania that opened for WWI, closed when peace broke out, reopened before WWII, was rescued by Korea, and flooded shut in 1990. It's restarting now. Columnist David Fickling calls tungsten mining 'a century-old prediction market for war.' Plus one correction I had to make to my own definition of a bottleneck.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-ai-deleveraging/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/serenity-x-week-ai-deleveraging/An independent researcher I follow kept posting through the late-July AI deleveraging. Line up the public numbers he pointed at that week and a strange picture emerges: prices collapsing, while earnings, capex guidance and capacity allocation all point the same way — not enough to go around.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep683-cannot-see-the-mountain/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep683-cannot-see-the-mountain/Notes on Gooaye EP683: backtesting whether you could have survived a leveraged drawdown badly overstates your resilience, because in a backtest you can see where it ended and in real time you cannot. Why this sell-off produced no capitulation volume. And one usable self-check on position size: if it is affecting your life, the position is too big. Educational notes, not investment advice.Mon, 03 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-ep209-the-half-eaten-peach/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-ep209-the-half-eaten-peach/Notes on MacroMicro After Meeting EP209: big-tech revenue and AI monetisation are still accelerating, yet the stocks are being punished for free cash flow turning negative. What changed is not the fundamentals but which line item the market prices. Plus the Microsoft capex 'cut' that was really a ten-year change in depreciation schedule, and why the death of forward guidance means watching monthly prints instead of officials' phrasing. Educational notes, not investment advice.Mon, 03 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep684-liquidity-carries-and-capsizes/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep684-liquidity-carries-and-capsizes/Notes on Gooaye EP684: July's sharp drawdown had no matching fundamental trigger — it was a market-wide deleveraging. A highly levered AI-thematic fund was liquidated; its longs were the year's best-performing AI hardware and its shorts were software, so both sides broke at once. My extensions: why the diversification I thought I had may be fictional, why a 50% drawdown carries no information by itself, and why position size is a risk dimension of its own. Educational notes, not investment advice.Sun, 02 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep682-no-bad-news-selloff/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep682-no-bad-news-selloff/The core observation in Gooaye EP682: this drawdown has no identifiable macro or industry trigger, which makes it look more like a valuation reset after an overheated spring. My notes on the episode, plus three extensions — why flat pricing is not the same as deteriorating profit, which side to believe when verifiable signals and price action disagree, and how the episode's advice to use moving averages as stops squares with my own backtest of moving averages. Educational notes, not investment advice.Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-ep208-long-vs-short-materials/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/macromicro-ep208-long-vs-short-materials/The main contribution of MacroMicro's After Meeting EP208: it splits the order-cut risk for the second half into two layers. Cuts to ordinary components only move the manufacturing cycle around; cuts to genuinely scarce parts are what a real turn looks like. Plus TSMC's inventory rising for two straight quarters and why that number has two meanings, Korea's leverage-on-leverage unwind, and why Kimi K3 did not trigger another DeepSeek moment. Educational notes, not investment advice.Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep681-fundamentals-vs-price/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep681-fundamentals-vs-price/The core tension in the latest Gooaye episode: nearly every AI supply-chain fundamental is on track, some even ahead of plan, yet prices are hard to call. The host's answer is to script multiple scenarios and hide in cheap, defensive names. My notes, plus an honest boundary: a mention is not a buy signal.Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-ep539-upstream-chokepoint/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-ep539-upstream-chokepoint/Personal notes from Statementdog (財報狗) Podcast EP539: Meta renting out compute is a business model taking shape, not a surplus of capacity; AI infrastructure hits hard physical bottlenecks in power and water; capital should look upstream from the endpoint toward mature nodes and silicon wafers; memory makers flip cash-flow structure with ultra-strict long-term contracts. Plus how the episode echoes two things I keep practicing — chokepoint-layer thinking, and reading that 'cheaper isn't peaking.' Educational notes, not investment advice; disclaimer at the end.Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dingmao-ep14-multinode-chokepoint/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/dingmao-ep14-multinode-chokepoint/Personal notes after Dingmao Industry Notes EP14 (Computex 2026 observations): Agentic AI forces servers toward multi-node architecture; the bottleneck shifts from 'compute' to management chips (BMC), power delivery (800V), and interconnect; plus how 'the future of devices' changes under the AI wave — from a single machine to a whole rack as one computer, power and cooling as the ceiling, the management layer as the nervous system, and endpoint devices redefined. Educational observation, not investment advice; disclaimer at the end.Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-boris-cherny-claude-code/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/oddlots-boris-cherny-claude-code/Notes after listening to Odd Lots interview Boris Cherny, who runs Claude Code at Anthropic. The part that stayed with me wasn't how capable the tool is. It was a study from the 1990s he brought up: companies bought the same computers, and only some of them got any productivity out of it. The difference was never the purchase.Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/helms-deep-no-safe-fortress/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/helms-deep-no-safe-fortress/When markets crack, everyone wants to retreat into the steadiest stock — the way Rohan retreated into Helm's Deep. But the walls of Helm's Deep were blown open, and TSMC just posted a blowout quarter and fell 6% anyway. A note on why there is no absolute safe haven, and why real defense is an action, not a place.Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-index-steady-stocks-bleeding/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-index-steady-stocks-bleeding/In the latest episode of Gooaye, host 'Chairman' lays out a read worth remembering: this wave of small-cap and high-beta carnage across Taiwan and US markets isn't driven by sector-specific bad news — it's spillover from a blow-up in highly leveraged Korean ETFs that has systematically compressed valuation multiples worldwide. TSMC's earnings were broadly excellent yet the stock got hammered — a flows problem, not a fundamentals one. And the Kimi K3 'AI threat' is a rerun of DeepSeek, best understood through Jevons Paradox. Full summary, stock-by-stock recap, plus our own take. A podcast listening note, educational, not investment advice.Sun, 19 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/genai-cert-exam-cheatsheet/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/genai-cert-exam-cheatsheet/A last-hours review tool for Taiwan's III Generative AI certification: a full 71-term key-terms reference in five groups, plus the high-frequency points and 'see X, pick Y' distinctions across all four areas — fundamentals, prompting, applied skills, ethics and law. A companion to my prep-method post. Educational sharing, not a question bank.Sat, 18 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/genai-cert-exam-prep/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/genai-cert-exam-prep/AI-900 in June, the III Generative AI certification in July. Here's my prep method: real past papers first, use AI to squeeze hundreds of practice questions into a single 'only-what-I-haven't-seen' review card, and judge on the spot which chapters to skip. Plus the topics this exam actually tests. A learning note.Sat, 18 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/meb-faber-640-carson-block-ai-sp500/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/meb-faber-640-carson-block-ai-sp500/Carson Block of Muddy Waters — the man Meb Faber calls 'the last short seller left in the world' — lays out an unsettling chain of logic on EP640: AI displaces high-paid knowledge workers, their 401(k) flows reverse, and the mega-caps that those flows inflated pull the S&P 500 down hard. Full summary, quotes, host and guest intros, and what we can take from it. A podcast listening note, educational.Sat, 18 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/install-ai-cli-beginners/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/install-ai-cli-beginners/Never touched a terminal? You can still follow this. Step-by-step install for four desktop AI command-line tools (Claude Code, Codex, Grok Build, Antigravity agy) on Mac and Windows: how to open the terminal, which line to paste, how to log in and use it, and the mistakes beginners hit most. Pick the one you already pay for. Tutorial.Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/grok-build-open-source/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/grok-build-open-source/On 2026-07-15 xAI open-sourced Grok Build, its terminal AI coding agent — 840k lines of Rust, out in the open. What it is, why it's worth reading, how to install and use it, and the one thing we learned reading the source. A learning note; educational sharing.Thu, 16 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep679-deleveraging-storm/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep679-deleveraging-storm/Taiwan's biggest finance podcast nails the anatomy of the recent global shakeout: cascading deleveraging from over-margined Korean retail, not the Middle East, not inflation. Plus momentum's timeout, real shortages in substrates and OSAT, and the hallucination tax on AI tools.Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/my-ai-engineering-team/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/my-ai-engineering-team/I was paying for three AI subscriptions and using one. So I turned Claude Code into a chief engineer and made Codex and Grok my implementation lanes — five-part specs, fail-loud discipline, and the most expensive lesson of all: an AI's completion report is not completion.Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/odd-lots-ai-more-work-for-lawyers/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/odd-lots-ai-more-work-for-lawyers/Bloomberg's Odd Lots hosted Gary Wingens, chair of a major US law firm: due-diligence costs down 70%, yet more work than ever; billing rates up 10% while total client bills fall. A one-episode masterclass in whether AI destroys jobs — plus my own one-person-company confirmation.Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/how-to-spot-empty-ai-hustle/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/how-to-spot-empty-ai-hustle/The internet is full of 'office worker makes $2,000 a month with the latest AI' side-hustle marketing. This piece teaches you five fingerprints for spotting hollow content, a thirty-second wallet check, and six thinking habits you can practice daily — write down a dated prediction, explain it plainly, write your own answer first, ask how a claim could be falsified, think one step further, and cool off for 48 hours. Educational sharing, no accounts or platforms named, not investment advice, disclaimer at the end.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/ai-mirror-protocol/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/ai-mirror-protocol/A prompt circulating in the AI community: have an agent excavate every session log on your machine and answer 'who are you' using your own timestamps. Six phases, fully local, full prompt included for copy-paste. This is my run — including the part where my own records called my bluff.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/certainty-for-sale/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/certainty-for-sale/A colleague started following a large Taiwanese stock-tutorial channel, and I didn't read it as poor judgment on his part. What he's buying isn't financial knowledge—it's the feeling that the market can be understood, predicted, and controlled. This piece uses behavioral finance and media literacy to unpack the six psychological needs these channels target so precisely, the free-trust-to-paid-course marketing funnel, and three questions you can carry with you to test any of them. An educational reflection—no channel is named, not investment advice, disclaimer at the end.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep678-when-the-fog-lifts/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep678-when-the-fog-lifts/Personal notes on Gooaye EP678: Meta repurposing old GPUs for inference and renting them out — refuting the 'AI server bad-debt' short thesis while making compute pricing transparent, which pressures dream-multiple valuations; rotation inside optical communications; the broad component price-hike wave. Educational notes, not investment advice; disclaimer at the end.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/fable5-farewell/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/fable5-farewell/The strongest model on my AI team retired today. In our last two days, I didn't ask it to do more work — I asked it to write down its thinking process. It left a map of my life's key problems, ten crisis playbooks, an honest gap map, and a letter. This is the record of those two days, and what I learned.Sun, 12 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/ai-team-orchestration/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/ai-team-orchestration/How a one-person AI company actually works: let Claude be the head coach that plans the hard problem and nails the interface, hand the execution to OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and a suddenly-sharper xAI Grok 4.5 running in parallel, then verify against reality. Three days of multi-vendor AI teamwork, shared as method and reflection.Sat, 11 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-ep538-anti-bubble-and-leverage/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-ep538-anti-bubble-and-leverage/Personal notes from Statementdog (財報狗) Podcast EP538: anti-bubble thinking, Korea's memory deleveraging, memory prices slowing but supply still tight, firms starting to rein in AI spend, and compute going tiered-and-cheaper. Plus how the episode echoes two things I've been practicing: separating noise from structure, and watching cross-market leverage. Educational notes, not investment advice; disclaimer at the end.Fri, 10 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/x-digest-signal-and-noise/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/x-digest-signal-and-noise/Personal trend notes after following a few sharp market voices on X: a 'dumbest thematic selloff' driven by noise, memory price hikes that shamed the doubters, the US-China humanoid-robot gap as a Sputnik moment, and $10T price targets as froth signals. X gives you the fastest information — and it's also where you most need to separate signal from noise. Educational notes, not investment advice; disclaimer at the end.Fri, 10 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/ai-900-part-2-ai-study-system/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/ai-900-part-2-ai-study-system/The parts the first post skipped: where to get practice questions (and an honest caveat), how to use AI to build a personal question bank that auto-quizzes, grades, and logs your misses, how to get AI to teach you the 'concept tree' instead of memorizing service names, and how to use AI to make review tables that cover the most concepts in the least time. A learning-method piece, not official courseware.Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-ep537-cybersecurity-saas/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/caibaogou-ep537-cybersecurity-saas/Personal takeaways from Statementdog (財報狗) Podcast EP537 (industry deep-dive, cybersecurity special): AI-automated security, the new business of protecting AI, software-defined defense and counter-drone, and using contract liabilities to read a SaaS company's momentum. With a full glossary of terms and techniques, sectors worth researching, and references. Educational notes, not investment advice; disclaimer at the end.Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep677-storm-and-patience/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/gooaye-ep677-storm-and-patience/Personal notes from Gooaye (股癌) Podcast EP677: the ruinous risk of extreme leverage, Taiwan's pullback and Korea's deleveraging, research-firm noise vs the long-term AI trend, and the rotation between hardware and software. Plus how my investing views and my inner state shifted recently. Educational notes, not investment advice; disclaimer at the end.Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/grok-claude-code-subscription-audit/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/grok-claude-code-subscription-audit/An overlooked billing trap: a subscription buys you quota inside the official app, while most third-party tools reach the model through the metered API. This is my attempt to run Grok 4.5 inside Claude Code and still bill it to my subscription, the grey-zone path I found, and the four-question security audit I ran on a third-party tool before letting it hold my account token. Tech notes and hands-on lessons, not a how-to.Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/grok-claude-code-three-paths/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/grok-claude-code-three-paths/The OAuth cliffhanger from last time, resolved. A diagnostic mistake — reading a personal subscription as a team account — sent me the long way round; once cleared, there turned out to be three ways to run Grok in (or next to) Claude Code, each with a price. But the real takeaway isn't 'I found the method' — it's rethinking how to allocate tasks: unattended automation rides the stable billing path, and only human-in-the-loop work rides the cheap subscription path. First draft written by Grok 4.5 itself.Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/how-i-passed-ai-900/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/how-i-passed-ai-900/How I passed Microsoft Azure AI Fundamentals (AI-900) in two weeks using block-based sprints, a one-page service cheat sheet, and spaced retrieval testing — plus a roundup of the most-tested, easiest-to-confuse concepts. A learning-method piece, not official courseware.Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/power-law-unreasonable-people/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/power-law-unreasonable-people/Notes from reading the introduction to Sebastian Mallaby's The Power Law: three quiz questions that reveal the gap between a retail investor's instincts and how the power law actually works — hit rate vs. the single winner, mean reversion vs. watering weeds and cutting flowers, courage vs. position sizing. Pure reflection and method education; disclaimer at the end.Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/proving-ma-crosses-dont-work/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/proving-ma-crosses-dont-work/A negative-result study showing that after 11,151 U.S. stocks including delisted names, a 31.7% survival rate, price-band controls, and trading costs, moving-average crossovers have no tradable edge.Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/contract-liability-future-revenue/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/contract-liability-future-revenue/A contract liability is money a customer has paid before the company has delivered. Why it sits under liabilities, why it's a leading indicator of future revenue, and how to find it in the financial statements step by step. Pure method education; disclaimer at the end.Mon, 06 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/expiry-date-for-every-prediction/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/expiry-date-for-every-prediction/The design philosophy behind a prediction-scoring system: pre-register the criteria, pair naive hit rate with a benchmark, refuse to conclude on thin samples, and handle conditional forecasts honestly. It is really about how not to fool yourself.Mon, 06 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/two-stop-loss-philosophies/https://blog.getrealpha.com/en/blog/two-stop-loss-philosophies/A stop is not one move but two philosophies: one cuts on price, the other cuts on size. Who each suits, why being right can still kill you, and why protecting capital is protecting your ability to recover. Educational method only, with a disclaimer at the end.Mon, 06 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT