Blog
Written for people to read and for AI to cite, so every claim keeps its source, its test and the way it could be proven wrong.
When Uncertainty Itself Becomes a Price
Notes from MacroMicro's After Meeting EP.212: why long-end Treasury yields were driven entirely by term premium, why gold and bitcoin rallied together, and how AI hyperscaler bond issuance is competing for the same buyers as the US government. Educational commentary, not investment advice — no price targets, no stock recommendations.
When 'Overheating' No Longer Looks Like Low Unemployment
Notes on the Odd Lots interview with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: why the question 'is policy restrictive?' can't be answered directly, whether the AI build-out is sectoral heat or economy-wide heat, and the difference between a reaction function and forward guidance. Educational, not investment advice.
Your Video Memory Shouldn't Live on Someone Else's Cloud
Field notes from moving an entire 'watch a video, get a searchable multimodal memory' pipeline onto my own machine — capture, embedding, storage, search. One evening, three pitfalls, zero cloud services.
Bottlenecks Everywhere: NVIDIA's Call, Hot Chips, and a Ten-Year Packaging Bet
Notes after listening to the 2026-08-27 Caibaogou markets episode: NVIDIA underwriting compute with its own balance sheet, Hot Chips turning into a memory conference, and Powerchip's decade-old panel-level packaging finally landing orders. Distilled into one way to read 'capacity-constrained' versus 'demand-starved' growth. Educational only, not investment advice; no tickers recommended and no price targets.
The Four Horsemen and the Half-Built Server Hall — Listening to Ed Zitron
The Compound and Friends hosted AI skeptic Ed Zitron on August 28, 2026. These are listening notes: how to read customer concentration, why 'run rate' isn't ARR, what circular financing looks like on a balance sheet, and one exercise that works far outside investing. Educational, not investment advice.
How Much Longer Can the Dollar Be the World's Money? — Notes on MacroVoices #547
Reflections on the MacroVoices interview with Daniel Lacalle (2026-08-27). It unpacks the three limits that give government debt its credibility, why stablecoins may be the bridge between the old monetary system and the new, and why central banks buy gold but not crypto. Educational notes only — no investment advice, no tickers, no price calls.
One Man's Uprising: Why Things at the Top Don't Need a Reason to Fall
Notes on The Meb Faber Show episode 648 with Paul Kedrosky. Why AI may be the first moment where every ingredient of a historic bubble arrives at once: extrapolating the future from coding, the least representative starting point imaginable; data center financing flipping from cash flow to external debt; a commodity deflating 70-80% a year; and how failure at high valuations becomes a matter of probabilities adding up. Educational only, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.
Making Payments Boring, Making Disagreement Public: Odd Lots' First Conversation at Jackson Hole
Notes and reflections on Bloomberg's Odd Lots (Aug 27, 2026) with Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid: why instant settlement leads straight back to duration and liquidity, how to read the long end of the curve, how the AI data center buildout crowds out other industries, and what a dissent actually means. Educational commentary, not investment advice; no tickers, no price targets.
When Everyone Has a Butler: Gooaye EP691 on What AI Actually Changed
Notes on Gooaye EP691 (2026-08-26). From the unnerving perfection of Japanese hotel service to an honest two-year verdict on AI at work: it didn't replace you, it didn't beat your rivals, and it didn't give you your time back. Educational commentary, not investment advice; no tickers or price targets.
When a Carmaker Decides Not to Do What Everyone Else Is Doing: Caibaogou Episodes 546 and 547 on BMW's Neue Klasse
Notes on a two-part Taiwanese industry podcast (episodes 546 and 547) about BMW's Neue Klasse: what a pricing team actually does, why Taiwan's standard equipment list was shaped by its alleyways, where the EV gap between Europe and Taiwan comes from, how to tell a useful feature from a novelty, and how to tell whether a brand narrative carries information or merely a position. Educational only — not investment advice, no stock recommendations or price targets.
The Market Already Ate the Good News: Notes on a Fight About 2027
Notes from the August 25, 2026 episode of The Compound and Friends. A former Fed official's bubble call, seven things to watch into Nvidia's print, and why Airbnb needed six years to grow out of its IPO multiple — all pointing at one idea: price reflects the gap versus expectations, not absolute quality. Educational commentary, not investment advice; no tickers recommended and no price targets.
"Two Companies Will Own Most of the World's Compute" — Notes on Dylan Patel's 2028 Map
Listening notes on the Dwarkesh Podcast conversation with SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel: how compute is concentrating into two labs, why revenue-per-megawatt is the ruler that matters, and how $5 trillion of credit reaches every stock you own. Educational; not investment advice, no tickers, no price targets.
Fifty-Eight Years of Almost: When a Technology Finally Finds Its Buyer
Notes from an Asianometry episode on the solid state transformer's fifty-eight years of near-misses, and what it teaches about the gap between technically possible and commercially viable. Educational only — not investment advice, no tickers, no price targets.
When the Price of Money Starts Rising: Reading This Market Through the 10-Year
Notes from listening to The Compound and Friends, 2026-08-24. Decomposing long-term Treasury yields into inflation expectations and real rates, why the classic bond hedge stopped working, the growth term everyone forgets in the valuation formula, and the no-recession assumption this market is quietly built on. Educational only, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.
What Happens When Intelligence Gets Ten Times Cheaper — Notes on Neil Movva
Notes after listening to Invest Like the Best EP.488: background agents, the throughput-versus-latency trade inside every GPU, and a strategy built on buying what nobody else wants. Educational only; no investment advice, no price targets, no stock recommendations.
The Big Game Hunter: A Forty-Year Defense of Trend Following
Notes on The Meb Faber Show, August 25, 2026, with original Turtle trader Jerry Parker: where managed futures ends and trend following begins, why a low win rate is a feature rather than a flaw, and how the 'crisis alpha' pitch quietly damages the strategy it is meant to sell. Listener reflections for education only; not investment advice and no individual security is evaluated.
Moats Evaporate. The People Who Dig Them Don't — Notes on TechWave EP151, After CUDA
Personal reflections on TechWave EP151: why CUDA's porting-cost moat is loosening, what Jensen Huang is really trying to solve by turning AI factories into an asset class, and what the Moderna mRNA headline actually means. Educational notes only — no stock recommendations or price targets.
The Circuit EP 189: Analog's AI Moment, and the Day Chip Companies Started Borrowing
Personal notes after listening to The Circuit (Aug 23, 2026). From ADI's earnings and analog content per gigawatt, to why SAM beats TAM, to the misread Marvell–Google deal, to chip companies competing with their balance sheets. Educational reading notes focused on how to interpret, not on stock conclusions. Not investment advice.
Four Shocks That Didn't Break the U.S. Economy — Notes on Macro Musings with Ben Harris
Notes after listening to the 2026-08-24 Macro Musings episode with Ben Harris: why the expected recession never arrived, why the real oil bottleneck is refining rather than crude, and whether AI can grow the U.S. out of its fiscal hole. Educational only; no investment advice, no stock recommendations.
Nigeria's $20 Billion Refinery: The Real Story Isn't Oil
Notes from the Bloomberg Odd Lots episode of 2026-08-24 with Joe Studwell on Dangote and African industrialisation. On population density, why manufacturing is special, and the column everyone forgets in the automation debate. Educational only, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.
Lining Up One Week of Public Information: Upstream Is Now Pricing in Lead Times
Seven days of one independent researcher's public posts, organised into four threads: lead time replacing price as the unit of account, high-end capacity crowding out low-end, sold out not meaning rent collected, and the dissolving boundary between memory and optical interconnect. Structure only — no tickers.
Good at Buying, Hopeless at Selling? Use a Dumb Line — Notes on Gooaye EP690
Reflections on the 2026-08-22 episode of Gooaye: the Marvell–Google chip agreement and the shift toward customer-owned tooling, a market that quietly reset everyone's baseline, and why an unglamorous exit rule beats a brilliant one. Educational commentary only — not investment advice, and no individual stock recommendations.
Casino or Squid Game? What MacroMicro's Korea Episode Taught Me About Denominators
Notes on MacroMicro's After Meeting EP.211 covering South Korea's margin leverage, the memory cycle, and currency structure — plus a method for reading positioning data when two numbers disagree. Educational only, not investment advice; no stock picks or price targets.
China Built 700 Waste-to-Energy Plants in Six Years: A Business Priced by Policy
Notes from Asianometry's episode on China's incinerator boom — how to read a business whose revenue is set by subsidy, why utilization rates matter more than installed capacity, and how local opposition becomes a real line item on the schedule. Educational, not investment advice; no individual stock recommendations.