Blog
Written for people to read and for AI to cite, so every claim keeps its source, its test and the way it could be proven wrong.
When Content Floods In, What's Scarce Is Someone Watching
Notes on Gooaye EP694: AI made content cheap, yet good content got more valuable; and how to read a great earnings report that the stock ignores. Educational, not investment advice — no tickers, no price targets.
Sixteen Years of Compute Forecasts Held Up. The Money Kept Breaking: Reading The Infinity Machine
Will AI capital spending overshoot? After reading Sebastian Mallaby's new book on DeepMind, I swapped the question. Across sixteen years of records, the compute curve tracked the forecast and every crisis was about money. So the question is not total spending, it is whose money can sit unpaid for ten years. Educational reading notes and reflections, not investment advice.
What Actually Changes an Organization Isn't the Rulebook: Four Years Inside Japan's Civil Service
Notes from the Investor's Sunday episode of 2026-09-06. Katsura Ito, former Microsoft Japan executive turned National Personnel Authority commissioner, on the 80% of change management that transfers anywhere and the last 2% that belongs to one organization's DNA. Educational reflection only — no investment advice, no stock picks, no price targets.
Ten Dollars for One Request: The Day GPT6 Astra Drained Lunchuizhe's Balance, I Went Back and Checked My Own Bill
Lunchuizhe put GPT6 Astra to the test: three chat questions cost a dollar, then one small Codex task turned a seven-dollar balance negative. His verdict was that the model isn't expensive, we're just poor. I pulled a full day of my own AI usage and found the bill tracks how much the model reads, not how much it answers. Educational notes and extension, not a buying recommendation.
A Subscription Beats Pay-Per-Use by a Mile. So Why Won't He Hand It Six Tasks at Once?
Pushed by his commenters, 掄錘者 re-ran the same GPT6 task on a subscription instead of the API: nine dollars yesterday, 4% of a weekly quota today. He conceded the subscription wins, then admitted he no longer dares to fire six tasks at once the way he does with cheap models. I priced my own week of usage at list rates and found that a subscription doesn't save you money. It converts money into a clock that resets. Educational notes and extension, not a purchase recommendation.
Long-Bond Yields Keep Making New Highs. What Can the US Actually Do?
Notes after listening to MacroMicro's After Meeting EP 213. The 10-year at 4.8%, the 30-year at 5.2%, and a market worried about whether America can pay. The show takes one debt equation and splits the problem into three roads — deficit, rates, growth — then walks each one. Educational notes, not investment advice.
Terence Tao Says Probability Is Only the Right Ruler When Things Repeat. What About the Decisions I Only Get to Make Once?
Terence Tao spent eighty minutes on Big Think walking through his new book, Six Math Essentials. Four things stayed with me: where probability stops applying, why doubling down is bankruptcy compressed into a small number, why traffic keeps jamming after the accident is cleared, and how a correct model that fits worse at first gets killed by the data. I checked each against my own prediction ledger and my settlement-fan calibration, and every one of them landed. Educational notes and extension, not investment advice.
The Answer He Wanted Was No. The AI Gave Him Several Pages of Yes.
Terence Tao says mathematicians want two things: answers, and understanding. For centuries the two were inseparable, because getting an answer required understanding first. That link has broken — problems are being solved by people with no domain expertise, the answers are correct and verifiable, and nobody knows what happened. What AI lacks, he argues, is not generation but deletion. I checked one broken alarm and a 16 KB lessons file of my own against him.
In the AI Boom, Who Is Actually Getting Stronger and Who Just Caught the Wave
Personal reflections after listening to the 2026-09-03 episode of the Caibaogou podcast on the SEMICON show floor. From co-development between equipment makers and their customers, to who owns the heat problem, to facility lead times and local materials sourcing — a method for reading who is actually getting stronger during a boom. Educational content, not investment advice; no stock picks or price targets.
What Comes After the Data Center Backlash?
Notes after listening to Catalyst (2026-09-03): what happens when an argument stops being about whether the numbers are right and becomes about whether people want the thing at all. On micro truths that stop being true at macro scale, and how a price signal can make an unworkable business workable. Educational, not investment advice.
How Morgan Stanley Picks Stocks: A Conversation About Which Losses You Can Wait Out
Notes from listening to The Compound and Friends interview Morgan Stanley portfolio manager Dan Skelly. Covers the structure behind this quarter's earnings, how the AI capex cycle differs from 2000, and the line between temporary and permanent impairment in sell discipline. Educational reflection only; no investment advice and no stock recommendations.
I Bought an Expensive US Market Dataset This Year, Then Found This Public One
An introduction to a public US market dataset: daily prices, earnings call transcripts, financial statements, company news, and delisted companies kept in full. Notes from a paying subscriber, with how to start and one assumption to know about. Educational and methodological.
Energy Tech Meets Timescales: Notes on MacroVoices #548 and the Real Bottleneck in the Nuclear Renaissance
Reflections on MacroVoices episode 548 with Dr. Carly Anderson — mass manufacturing for fission, the uranium conversion bottleneck, laser enrichment, supercritical CO2 turbines, and the cost argument over fusion. Educational notes only; not investment advice and no stock recommendations.
When Gold Stops Being a Commodity: Notes on an Interview About the Rising Price of Diversification
Notes from The Meb Faber Show's conversation with AllianceBernstein chief investment strategist Inigo Fraser-Jenkins: why stock-bond diversification may not come back, why gold gets reclassified as money, and the arithmetic behind AI productivity. Educational only, not investment advice, no individual stock recommendations.
Why Yields Jumped: When the Last Buyer Is Already Full
Notes from Bloomberg Odd Lots' conversation with Stanford finance professor Darrell Duffie: the surge in long-dated Treasury yields may have less to do with inflation than with supply landing on investors who already own all they want. On marginal buyers, Treasury buybacks, the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet, and how the idea transfers to your own judgment. Educational, not investment advice.
Lasers Are the Hot New Thing in Defense: You Can Win Every Fight and Still Lose on the Books
Notes after listening to Odd Lots (2026-09-04) on directed energy weapons: how lasers differ from microwaves, why the technology stalled for sixty years on size-weight-power, and what 'win tactically, lose economically' means for investors and for everyday decisions. Educational, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.
Notes on Anchor Industry Podcast EP13: AI Boards Keep Upgrading — So Where Does the PCB Chain Actually Jam?
Reflections after listening to Anchor Industry Notes EP13: board layer counts, glass fabric, copper foil and drill bits, and why 'tight supply' and 'pricing power' are two different things. Educational only, not investment advice, no buy or sell opinions on any stock.
The Day I Ran My First 10K, and Rethought What 'Adding to a Position' Means
Notes on Gooaye EP693: what the buyers of MediaTek's $3.5B convertible bond are actually buying, why NVIDIA is fine with customers building their own chips, and whether you should add or trim after a stock has already run. Personal reflections for educational purposes, not investment advice.
Whether It's Worth It Is One Question. Whether You Can Get One Is Another.
A Chinese YouTuber who runs six machines at home reacts to the news that OpenAI bought tens of thousands of Macs to teach AI how to use a mouse. His conclusion: hardware won't get cheaper for two or three years. I checked it against Apple's own earnings call and our memory-supply research. The supply side holds up; the phrase 'this time is different' has a track record in memory. Educational notes and extensions.
When Compute Becomes a Financial Product: What's Actually Different From 2008
Notes from listening to MacroMicro's 2026-09-02 feature, 'If AI compute gets securitised, are we heading for another subprime crisis?' Covers how credit cycles self-reinforce, the four structural differences between AI financing and subprime, and how to replace a gut-level analogy with something you can actually check. Educational only, not investment advice; no stock picks or price targets.
After the Helicopter Drops You on the Summit: Terence Tao on AI, and the Same Lesson We Learned from 202 Indicators
Terence Tao says formal verification can make AI completely honest. Last week we tested that claim with 202 trading-indicator candidates: a star that scored 97.7 in round one died at 59 in round two. AI output alone is not trustworthy; AI plus a gate it cannot talk its way past is.
What Is Speed Actually Worth? — Notes on a Tech Wave Episode About Cerebras
Starting from one podcast episode's business-side analysis: does the ultra-fast inference market exist, how should we read customer concentration, and why supply-chain numbers are usually a lagging indicator. Educational only, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.
AI Improving AI Doesn't Have to Mean Changing Its Brain
A ten-minute video from Xiaotian asks whether AI self-improvement must mean changing model weights. He uses EvoX's swarm mode to argue that civilisations improve through institutions and cooperation, and AI can too. I put our own two 'AI improving AI' loops next to his claim: detection works, self-change never happened, and the missing piece of a swarm hit me personally this morning. Educational notes and extensions.
He Didn't Persuade Anyone — He Just Took the Pill First
Notes after listening to Statement Dog's Sept 1, 2026 interview with Phison CEO Pua Khein-Seng: demand isn't created, be your own first user, flash is a complement rather than a substitute, and how a founder holds a five-year horizon against market noise. Educational only — not investment advice, no stock recommendations or price targets.