Mindset & Growth
How to think, how to judge, how to live with uncertainty: notes to myself, and to you. 54 posts.
Gooaye EP681: The Numbers Are Right, the Price Might Not Follow
The core tension in the latest Gooaye episode: nearly every AI supply-chain fundamental is on track, some even ahead of plan, yet prices are hard to call. The host's answer is to script multiple scenarios and hide in cheap, defensive names. My notes, plus an honest boundary: a mention is not a buy signal.
The Walls of Helm's Deep: In a Crash, Your Safest Refuge Is Discipline, Not TSMC
When markets crack, everyone wants to retreat into the steadiest stock — the way Rohan retreated into Helm's Deep. But the walls of Helm's Deep were blown open, and TSMC just posted a blowout quarter and fell 6% anyway. A note on why there is no absolute safe haven, and why real defense is an action, not a place.
Who's Really Behind the 'Steady Index, Bleeding Stocks' Market? Notes on Gooaye EP680 — A 15% Drawdown Playbook, TSMC Mispriced, and a Misread AI 'Threat'
In the latest episode of Gooaye, host 'Chairman' lays out a read worth remembering: this wave of small-cap and high-beta carnage across Taiwan and US markets isn't driven by sector-specific bad news — it's spillover from a blow-up in highly leveraged Korean ETFs that has systematically compressed valuation multiples worldwide. TSMC's earnings were broadly excellent yet the stock got hammered — a flows problem, not a fundamentals one. And the Kimi K3 'AI threat' is a rerun of DeepSeek, best understood through Jevons Paradox. Full summary, stock-by-stock recap, plus our own take. A podcast listening note, educational, not investment advice.
Gooaye EP679: This Selloff Isn't Fundamentals — It's Margin Calls
Taiwan's biggest finance podcast nails the anatomy of the recent global shakeout: cascading deleveraging from over-margined Korean retail, not the Middle East, not inflation. Plus momentum's timeout, real shortages in substrates and OSAT, and the hallucination tax on AI tools.
Gooaye Podcast EP677 Notes: Stay Away From Leverage, Don't Predict the Bear — and My Two Shifts This Half-Year
Personal notes from Gooaye (股癌) Podcast EP677: the ruinous risk of extreme leverage, Taiwan's pullback and Korea's deleveraging, research-firm noise vs the long-term AI trend, and the rotation between hardware and software. Plus how my investing views and my inner state shifted recently. Educational notes, not investment advice; disclaimer at the end.
Two Philosophies of the Stop: Price Stops and Position Caps
A stop is not one move but two philosophies: one cuts on price, the other cuts on size. Who each suits, why being right can still kill you, and why protecting capital is protecting your ability to recover. Educational method only, with a disclaimer at the end.